Well, Iran is a huge mess, but in terms of strategic lessons, it actually tips the balance closer to "Taiwan, with US help and proper preparation, can deny China control of the strait of Taiwan" (and vice versa, of course). It's clear that asymmetric warfare is good now at denying access to ocean and turning it into no-man's-zone.
In a lot of ways, helping defending Taiwan (a very well-scoped objective, "do not let China land troops") would have been a lot easier than convincing a nation of 90 million to just roll over and give up rather than chucking drones across the gulf every so often.
I see what you're saying. But China wouldn't be just trying to control the strait, they'd presumably be trying to take the island over and willing to commit ground troops. Also I'm not sure if you're aware of the extent of the damage Iran did to US bases on the area but you can count on the same thing happening to any of ours in the region. I just don't see what we'd be able to do other than lob some missiles at them. And we're already low on those too now
actually tips the balance closer to "Taiwan, with US help and proper preparation, can deny China control of the strait of Taiwan"
Sadly not true. So long as the US is unwilling to launch a large-scale invasion and occupation of Iran, Iran can make the strait riskier than commercial shipping traffic is comfortable with. Vs. occupation of Taiwan seems to be the CCP's goal.
Comments
Well, Iran is a huge mess, but in terms of strategic lessons, it actually tips the balance closer to "Taiwan, with US help and proper preparation, can deny China control of the strait of Taiwan" (and vice versa, of course). It's clear that asymmetric warfare is good now at denying access to ocean and turning it into no-man's-zone.
In a lot of ways, helping defending Taiwan (a very well-scoped objective, "do not let China land troops") would have been a lot easier than convincing a nation of 90 million to just roll over and give up rather than chucking drones across the gulf every so often.
I see what you're saying. But China wouldn't be just trying to control the strait, they'd presumably be trying to take the island over and willing to commit ground troops. Also I'm not sure if you're aware of the extent of the damage Iran did to US bases on the area but you can count on the same thing happening to any of ours in the region. I just don't see what we'd be able to do other than lob some missiles at them. And we're already low on those too now
Sadly not true. So long as the US is unwilling to launch a large-scale invasion and occupation of Iran, Iran can make the strait riskier than commercial shipping traffic is comfortable with. Vs. occupation of Taiwan seems to be the CCP's goal.
Is Taiwan going to construct a hundred secret underground missile and drone cities like Iran? It would take decades to make them in the best case.
If anything, Iran has proved that is what they should be doing right now.
Yes — the US has helped Taiwan build them all over their mountains.