It's hard to overstate how poorly this whole thing was thought out and executed. They obviously had no plan for what we'd do when Iran seized the strait. This is going to go down as the definitive beginning of the decline leading to the eventual end of US global hegemony. To think anyone ever mentioned defending Taiwan from China lol
The US military actually knew exactly how it would end, they've been wargaming this scenario for decades. Look up things like Millennium Challenge 2002. The US lost heavily.
They then re-ran the simulation along a script designed to guarantee the US couldn't lose a second time. Unfortunately through some sort of oversight the IRGC were never sent a copy of the script before the current mess.
Europe explicitly does not provide security guarantees to Taiwan. A large majority of Europeans would not support an intervention. Seen from here sure it would be a loss for Democracy, but there are bigger problems today like climate change and global stability. War for and democracy at all costs narratives doesn’t work like in the US.
Yeah it is obviously mainly a problem for the countries in the eastern hemisphere.
But I expect Europe would help economically and Ukraine (the new military superpower in Europe) would help with planning and strategy and software
Just like Japan, south Korea, Australia and New Zealand send support to the war against the muscovites.
I think that war for democacy first need to happen at home. Europe is at risk, altrough holding up much better them USA did.
US does not war for democracy anyway. It wars for own interests using democracy as a fig leaf or even intentionally destroying it.
It did defended democracy after WWII, really. It did helped Ukraine, initially. But then took autocrats sides and in between did quite a few definitely-not-pro-democracy wars or coups.
US does whatever the most expedient is. Democracy was the 'flavour of the month' some time ago. Even then, one can only assume it was front to some "friendly" bullying. Now the mask slipped.
Let me check if I get this right: you're making the argument that if USA won't defend Taiwan, Ukraine/Europe/Canada/Japan/S-Korea/Australia will?
I mean, obviously Ukraine won't. Does that need saying? It's insane to think about. Look at the history of WW1 and WW2: Russia will fight until the Russian state collapses and we're, at minimum, years away from that happening. And Ukraine, if they have any sense whatsoever, will do exactly very little for anyone else until that happens. Only a German dictator is stupid enough to answer "What do you do if you're stuck in a land war with Russia?" with "open 3 extra fronts" and we all know what happened to him. Ukraine is fighting from the underdog position and that means: no stupidity. And that means: no fighting China, no defending Taiwan, even despite the fact that China is fighting Ukraine. Sorry.
Europe and Canada utterly depend on China in 1000 different ways. They have chosen not to defend anyone, and will need a decade (minimum) to rearm. And even rearmed ... will they be able to challenge China? At that distance? Other than France none of these countries currently have the ability to project power outside of their borders at all, so they will do exactly nothing, because they've chosen to be utterly powerless (google "the peace dividend")
These countries are actually smug about those decisions, despite how stupid they are. I was recently in Ireland, and in a pub I found that that NOT ONLY Irish people were proud NOT to support Ukraine, but they were "proud" (their words, not mine) that they were still supporting Russia, because that matters to them personally (ie. jobs from Alumia exports and cheap Russian gas for everyone)
You know, people kept screaming the same thing with the USAID cuts. Everyone else will take over and get goodwill from everywhere instead of US. Reality then was that nobody took over, and where they did, it was to support armies, not people (e.g. UAE "helping" Sudan, Russia "helping" Mali, ... of course all of that happened with UN approval or at least silence)
Reality here is that if the US doesn't help defending Taiwan, nobody will. Not even Japan or South Korea. MAYBE Taiwan will get Ukraine-style loans, if that even matters (without US help, China will be able to fully control both sea and air routes into Taiwan in a matter of days. So even if Taiwan has money to spend, delivery of anything they buy will be utterly impossible)
What? You want some news links over Ireland's position at the EU about their magnesium and Russian gas imports?
What it means is that not only is that the government position, but it's got wide support from Irish people. The position being: no support for Ukraine (only loans), Irish jobs and cheap gas are more important.
Ireland took in an incredibly large number of Ukraine refugees per capita.
The alumina thing is pretty bad, and reflective of Irish peoples relatively confused understanding of geopolitics.
Now do the Greeks ;) one of the big problems with the EU is that it's a collection of national governments who have their own interests. Given that, they've done incredibly well on the Russian stuff.
And btw, Ireland does not have either Russian nor cheap gas.
Support for Ukraine from USA is almost zero now and they still hold up and event advance with help from Europe.
And obviously knowledge from Ukraine would be of huge help for Taiwan.
Your USAID example is depressing though. You'd wish the cutbacks had been done in a more controlled manner. They seemed a bit rushed, to noones benefit.
Well, Iran is a huge mess, but in terms of strategic lessons, it actually tips the balance closer to "Taiwan, with US help and proper preparation, can deny China control of the strait of Taiwan" (and vice versa, of course). It's clear that asymmetric warfare is good now at denying access to ocean and turning it into no-man's-zone.
In a lot of ways, helping defending Taiwan (a very well-scoped objective, "do not let China land troops") would have been a lot easier than convincing a nation of 90 million to just roll over and give up rather than chucking drones across the gulf every so often.
I see what you're saying. But China wouldn't be just trying to control the strait, they'd presumably be trying to take the island over and willing to commit ground troops. Also I'm not sure if you're aware of the extent of the damage Iran did to US bases on the area but you can count on the same thing happening to any of ours in the region. I just don't see what we'd be able to do other than lob some missiles at them. And we're already low on those too now
actually tips the balance closer to "Taiwan, with US help and proper preparation, can deny China control of the strait of Taiwan"
Sadly not true. So long as the US is unwilling to launch a large-scale invasion and occupation of Iran, Iran can make the strait riskier than commercial shipping traffic is comfortable with. Vs. occupation of Taiwan seems to be the CCP's goal.
Comments
It's hard to overstate how poorly this whole thing was thought out and executed. They obviously had no plan for what we'd do when Iran seized the strait. This is going to go down as the definitive beginning of the decline leading to the eventual end of US global hegemony. To think anyone ever mentioned defending Taiwan from China lol
Your phrasing implies that someone with real authority tried to think it out, and had realistic plans.
Vs. I see an angry, frustrated C-in-C, who has maybe a 1-move look ahead, playing out his emotions. Hopefully he is too weak to flip the chess board.
The US military actually knew exactly how it would end, they've been wargaming this scenario for decades. Look up things like Millennium Challenge 2002. The US lost heavily.
They then re-ran the simulation along a script designed to guarantee the US couldn't lose a second time. Unfortunately through some sort of oversight the IRGC were never sent a copy of the script before the current mess.
How so?
"They obviously had no plan..."
How does that imply someone had realistic plansm
This "Strait of Hormuz War" is the "Suez Crisis of 1956" for the US Empire. You know, the one that ended the British Empire.
There are still countries willing to defend democracy out there - Ukraine/Europe/Canada/Japan/S-Korea/Australia.
Just not USA.
Europe explicitly does not provide security guarantees to Taiwan. A large majority of Europeans would not support an intervention. Seen from here sure it would be a loss for Democracy, but there are bigger problems today like climate change and global stability. War for and democracy at all costs narratives doesn’t work like in the US.
Yeah it is obviously mainly a problem for the countries in the eastern hemisphere.
But I expect Europe would help economically and Ukraine (the new military superpower in Europe) would help with planning and strategy and software Just like Japan, south Korea, Australia and New Zealand send support to the war against the muscovites.
I think that war for democacy first need to happen at home. Europe is at risk, altrough holding up much better them USA did.
US does not war for democracy anyway. It wars for own interests using democracy as a fig leaf or even intentionally destroying it.
It did defended democracy after WWII, really. It did helped Ukraine, initially. But then took autocrats sides and in between did quite a few definitely-not-pro-democracy wars or coups.
US does whatever the most expedient is. Democracy was the 'flavour of the month' some time ago. Even then, one can only assume it was front to some "friendly" bullying. Now the mask slipped.
Do you think any of those countries are going to try or see capable of stopping China from taking Taiwan?
Let me check if I get this right: you're making the argument that if USA won't defend Taiwan, Ukraine/Europe/Canada/Japan/S-Korea/Australia will?
I mean, obviously Ukraine won't. Does that need saying? It's insane to think about. Look at the history of WW1 and WW2: Russia will fight until the Russian state collapses and we're, at minimum, years away from that happening. And Ukraine, if they have any sense whatsoever, will do exactly very little for anyone else until that happens. Only a German dictator is stupid enough to answer "What do you do if you're stuck in a land war with Russia?" with "open 3 extra fronts" and we all know what happened to him. Ukraine is fighting from the underdog position and that means: no stupidity. And that means: no fighting China, no defending Taiwan, even despite the fact that China is fighting Ukraine. Sorry.
Europe and Canada utterly depend on China in 1000 different ways. They have chosen not to defend anyone, and will need a decade (minimum) to rearm. And even rearmed ... will they be able to challenge China? At that distance? Other than France none of these countries currently have the ability to project power outside of their borders at all, so they will do exactly nothing, because they've chosen to be utterly powerless (google "the peace dividend")
These countries are actually smug about those decisions, despite how stupid they are. I was recently in Ireland, and in a pub I found that that NOT ONLY Irish people were proud NOT to support Ukraine, but they were "proud" (their words, not mine) that they were still supporting Russia, because that matters to them personally (ie. jobs from Alumia exports and cheap Russian gas for everyone)
You know, people kept screaming the same thing with the USAID cuts. Everyone else will take over and get goodwill from everywhere instead of US. Reality then was that nobody took over, and where they did, it was to support armies, not people (e.g. UAE "helping" Sudan, Russia "helping" Mali, ... of course all of that happened with UN approval or at least silence)
Reality here is that if the US doesn't help defending Taiwan, nobody will. Not even Japan or South Korea. MAYBE Taiwan will get Ukraine-style loans, if that even matters (without US help, China will be able to fully control both sea and air routes into Taiwan in a matter of days. So even if Taiwan has money to spend, delivery of anything they buy will be utterly impossible)
The litmus test for where a country stands on international issues boils down to a conversation you had with some lads over pints?
What? You want some news links over Ireland's position at the EU about their magnesium and Russian gas imports?
What it means is that not only is that the government position, but it's got wide support from Irish people. The position being: no support for Ukraine (only loans), Irish jobs and cheap gas are more important.
Ireland took in an incredibly large number of Ukraine refugees per capita.
The alumina thing is pretty bad, and reflective of Irish peoples relatively confused understanding of geopolitics.
Now do the Greeks ;) one of the big problems with the EU is that it's a collection of national governments who have their own interests. Given that, they've done incredibly well on the Russian stuff.
And btw, Ireland does not have either Russian nor cheap gas.
Support for Ukraine from USA is almost zero now and they still hold up and event advance with help from Europe.
And obviously knowledge from Ukraine would be of huge help for Taiwan.
Your USAID example is depressing though. You'd wish the cutbacks had been done in a more controlled manner. They seemed a bit rushed, to noones benefit.
Wait what? Ukraine hasn't had elections since 2019. Also do you genuinely believe that the power play in geopolitics is about "spreading democracy" ?
Well, Iran is a huge mess, but in terms of strategic lessons, it actually tips the balance closer to "Taiwan, with US help and proper preparation, can deny China control of the strait of Taiwan" (and vice versa, of course). It's clear that asymmetric warfare is good now at denying access to ocean and turning it into no-man's-zone.
In a lot of ways, helping defending Taiwan (a very well-scoped objective, "do not let China land troops") would have been a lot easier than convincing a nation of 90 million to just roll over and give up rather than chucking drones across the gulf every so often.
I see what you're saying. But China wouldn't be just trying to control the strait, they'd presumably be trying to take the island over and willing to commit ground troops. Also I'm not sure if you're aware of the extent of the damage Iran did to US bases on the area but you can count on the same thing happening to any of ours in the region. I just don't see what we'd be able to do other than lob some missiles at them. And we're already low on those too now
Sadly not true. So long as the US is unwilling to launch a large-scale invasion and occupation of Iran, Iran can make the strait riskier than commercial shipping traffic is comfortable with. Vs. occupation of Taiwan seems to be the CCP's goal.
Is Taiwan going to construct a hundred secret underground missile and drone cities like Iran? It would take decades to make them in the best case.
If anything, Iran has proved that is what they should be doing right now.
Yes — the US has helped Taiwan build them all over their mountains.