I feel like we keep hearing this every time something big happens in the world and within a year or so, it's back to normal. Not that I believe either statement.
Back to normal, as in, new oil just magically appeared? Regardless of international situations, and I feel strange needing to say this, we will run out of cheap oil. We will also run out long before the creation of a good petrol alternative for ICE vehicles. Alternatives are how the less than wealthy are going to make it thru. For example, I have arranged my life to not need a car. Wasnt easy and I need to spend my car money on a house but it is what it is.
New oil "magically" appears all the time as drilling companies find new fields and improve extraction technology. Most recently the invention of fracking made a huge difference in supply. We will never run out, but over an extended period we can expect prices to gradually increase (with some temporary fluctuations). There's still a lot of room to increase the fuel efficiency of ICE vehicles with hybrid power trains and lighter parts.
Wait, are you saying we will never run out of cheap oil? Sure, there will still be drillable oil in my lifetime but it isnt going to be used to push cars around. I am also willing to bet, insofar as getting rid of all my ICE vehicles and getting solar going etc, that petroleum products are going to be prohibitively expensive in the next 10-15 years. There is more intrigue to oil than just the cost of turning it into gas.
I am saying that in 15 years, gasoline will still be affordable for routine use by middle class people in developed countries. It will be a little more expensive but not prohibitively so. Look at long term trends for consumption versus proven reserves. More oil is found every year, and technical advancements keep making it economical to squeeze more out of existing fields.
Solar power doesn't do much to reduce petroleum demand.
That actually means gas prices haven't gone up, or not by much. In the 20 years from 2001 to today, inflation roughly doubled everything. If gas went from $1.9x then to $4 today, that's actually not far out of line.
The Russia supply shock this month is unusual, but the mid-$3 pricing plateau over the preceding year was quite normal by historical standards.
That actually means gas prices haven't gone up, or not by much. In the 20 years from 2001 to today, inflation roughly doubled everything
"Inflation" is a nebulous word, if you're referring to CPI, isn't oil price (via transportation, fertilizer costs) a major contributor to that increasing?
I'd expect a historic fuel price chart corrected for CPI to be roughly a horizontal line, because fuel prices majorly contribute to it.
Well a little inflation is always bound to happen. We had >$4 gasoline in the 00's when I got rid of my Tahoe as fuel was inching towards $5.
"...captured a gas station with its prices in view ..."
Where was this footage taken from, NY or NJ? Back then NJ always had stupidly cheap gasoline compared to NY. I always waited until NJ to fill up on road trips.
Comments
I feel like we keep hearing this every time something big happens in the world and within a year or so, it's back to normal. Not that I believe either statement.
Back to normal, as in, new oil just magically appeared? Regardless of international situations, and I feel strange needing to say this, we will run out of cheap oil. We will also run out long before the creation of a good petrol alternative for ICE vehicles. Alternatives are how the less than wealthy are going to make it thru. For example, I have arranged my life to not need a car. Wasnt easy and I need to spend my car money on a house but it is what it is.
Location very much takes a role in being able to do this, I think.
New oil "magically" appears all the time as drilling companies find new fields and improve extraction technology. Most recently the invention of fracking made a huge difference in supply. We will never run out, but over an extended period we can expect prices to gradually increase (with some temporary fluctuations). There's still a lot of room to increase the fuel efficiency of ICE vehicles with hybrid power trains and lighter parts.
Wait, are you saying we will never run out of cheap oil? Sure, there will still be drillable oil in my lifetime but it isnt going to be used to push cars around. I am also willing to bet, insofar as getting rid of all my ICE vehicles and getting solar going etc, that petroleum products are going to be prohibitively expensive in the next 10-15 years. There is more intrigue to oil than just the cost of turning it into gas.
I am saying that in 15 years, gasoline will still be affordable for routine use by middle class people in developed countries. It will be a little more expensive but not prohibitively so. Look at long term trends for consumption versus proven reserves. More oil is found every year, and technical advancements keep making it economical to squeeze more out of existing fields.
Solar power doesn't do much to reduce petroleum demand.
ugh magically appeared is true kinda with opec pulling levers as they feel like it.
I dream of a no car life. Hate driving but it’s really tough in the US. Was in heaven for a week when I visited Switzerland
It's not like gas prices haven't gone up substantially over the past 20 years...
The new 9/11 NYC footage that was recently making the rounds captured a gas station with its prices in view, they were all $1.XX/gal.
That actually means gas prices haven't gone up, or not by much. In the 20 years from 2001 to today, inflation roughly doubled everything. If gas went from $1.9x then to $4 today, that's actually not far out of line.
The Russia supply shock this month is unusual, but the mid-$3 pricing plateau over the preceding year was quite normal by historical standards.
"Inflation" is a nebulous word, if you're referring to CPI, isn't oil price (via transportation, fertilizer costs) a major contributor to that increasing?
I'd expect a historic fuel price chart corrected for CPI to be roughly a horizontal line, because fuel prices majorly contribute to it.
Well a little inflation is always bound to happen. We had >$4 gasoline in the 00's when I got rid of my Tahoe as fuel was inching towards $5.
Where was this footage taken from, NY or NJ? Back then NJ always had stupidly cheap gasoline compared to NY. I always waited until NJ to fill up on road trips.
Looks like NYC to me, it's rather close and right on the waterfront:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gBJvGMZIYA&t=332s
Which if what you say is true about the relative local prices, suggests these are above average prices for the era and still sub $2.
They've also fluctuated quite a bit. I remember paying $1.95/gallon for gas in early 2020.
With inflation the way it is, I wouldn't doubt that prices close to $4 would be more where it stabilizes for a few years.