New oil "magically" appears all the time as drilling companies find new fields and improve extraction technology. Most recently the invention of fracking made a huge difference in supply. We will never run out, but over an extended period we can expect prices to gradually increase (with some temporary fluctuations). There's still a lot of room to increase the fuel efficiency of ICE vehicles with hybrid power trains and lighter parts.
Wait, are you saying we will never run out of cheap oil? Sure, there will still be drillable oil in my lifetime but it isnt going to be used to push cars around. I am also willing to bet, insofar as getting rid of all my ICE vehicles and getting solar going etc, that petroleum products are going to be prohibitively expensive in the next 10-15 years. There is more intrigue to oil than just the cost of turning it into gas.
I am saying that in 15 years, gasoline will still be affordable for routine use by middle class people in developed countries. It will be a little more expensive but not prohibitively so. Look at long term trends for consumption versus proven reserves. More oil is found every year, and technical advancements keep making it economical to squeeze more out of existing fields.
Solar power doesn't do much to reduce petroleum demand.
Comments
New oil "magically" appears all the time as drilling companies find new fields and improve extraction technology. Most recently the invention of fracking made a huge difference in supply. We will never run out, but over an extended period we can expect prices to gradually increase (with some temporary fluctuations). There's still a lot of room to increase the fuel efficiency of ICE vehicles with hybrid power trains and lighter parts.
Wait, are you saying we will never run out of cheap oil? Sure, there will still be drillable oil in my lifetime but it isnt going to be used to push cars around. I am also willing to bet, insofar as getting rid of all my ICE vehicles and getting solar going etc, that petroleum products are going to be prohibitively expensive in the next 10-15 years. There is more intrigue to oil than just the cost of turning it into gas.
I am saying that in 15 years, gasoline will still be affordable for routine use by middle class people in developed countries. It will be a little more expensive but not prohibitively so. Look at long term trends for consumption versus proven reserves. More oil is found every year, and technical advancements keep making it economical to squeeze more out of existing fields.
Solar power doesn't do much to reduce petroleum demand.