(tdlr: US ~800, Central european countries ~500, some big countries much less eg Ukraine ~250)
Also, EVs still have such big CO2 footprints that they don't really solve the problem, to make a dent we'll need to curtil the growth of cars globally - considering the developing countries catching up and getting more cars there, this means radical changes. The emissions from EVs also pile on top of the emissions from burning all the oil we pump up, so in a way they're increasing emissions if we consider the oil supply to be limited.
It is worth noting that the average age of cars in the United States has been going up every year for decades now [1]. Cars continue to get more durable and thus Americans aren't scrapping them at high rates.
In many comparable countries, mandatory inspections/maintenance force older cars off the road and into scrap heaps at a much higher rate - certainly at a higher rate than necessary.
Yup. Converted to gallons and the US dollar in Switzerland you have to pay $9.35 for gas (CHF2.3 per liter). Yet there's no shortage of cars on the highways here.
It's always hard to compare value internationally, but...
The median income in Switzerland is about $125k USD. That's more than twice the median in the US. It sounds like the affordability of $9/gal gas is greatly different. US politicians are actually suggesting things like a stipend or stimulus payment to help people pay for gas. Ridiculous, but that's how it is.
"The median income in Switzerland is about $125k USD."
I don't believe this for a second and sure enough the first few sources produced by a google search show a far different situations. The Swiss office of Federal Statistics says the median income is 50,120 CHF per year which is $53,880 USD at current exchange rates. Even the top 10% of the country's earners are only in the mid $90k, nowhere near $125k.
"It is measured by the median equivalised disposable income, after adjustment for differences in price levels between countries. This means that despite the high price levels in Switzerland, the population's financial situation, after deduction of obligatory expenditure, was in 2020 more comfortable than that of its neighbouring countries and countries in the European Union."
So the disposable median in Switzerland is about the same as the gross median in the US. It looks like the equivalised disposable income for the US is not calculated, so we can't compare that. Having a median disposable income that is about the same as the gross median of another country still seems to support my implication that the Swiss are more wealthy and can better afford the cost of gas as compared to the US.
It seems it's hard to get "good" sources for Swiss median income. They do list the median monthly wage as being around 6500. This doesn't include other income sources, and is still about double the US median income.
Distances driven in the US are often much higher as well. People I know regularly commute 30 to 60 minutes one way to get to work. Some tradesmen I know are driving 2 hours to get to the jobsite.
I feel like we keep hearing this every time something big happens in the world and within a year or so, it's back to normal. Not that I believe either statement.
Back to normal, as in, new oil just magically appeared? Regardless of international situations, and I feel strange needing to say this, we will run out of cheap oil. We will also run out long before the creation of a good petrol alternative for ICE vehicles. Alternatives are how the less than wealthy are going to make it thru. For example, I have arranged my life to not need a car. Wasnt easy and I need to spend my car money on a house but it is what it is.
New oil "magically" appears all the time as drilling companies find new fields and improve extraction technology. Most recently the invention of fracking made a huge difference in supply. We will never run out, but over an extended period we can expect prices to gradually increase (with some temporary fluctuations). There's still a lot of room to increase the fuel efficiency of ICE vehicles with hybrid power trains and lighter parts.
Wait, are you saying we will never run out of cheap oil? Sure, there will still be drillable oil in my lifetime but it isnt going to be used to push cars around. I am also willing to bet, insofar as getting rid of all my ICE vehicles and getting solar going etc, that petroleum products are going to be prohibitively expensive in the next 10-15 years. There is more intrigue to oil than just the cost of turning it into gas.
I am saying that in 15 years, gasoline will still be affordable for routine use by middle class people in developed countries. It will be a little more expensive but not prohibitively so. Look at long term trends for consumption versus proven reserves. More oil is found every year, and technical advancements keep making it economical to squeeze more out of existing fields.
Solar power doesn't do much to reduce petroleum demand.
That actually means gas prices haven't gone up, or not by much. In the 20 years from 2001 to today, inflation roughly doubled everything. If gas went from $1.9x then to $4 today, that's actually not far out of line.
The Russia supply shock this month is unusual, but the mid-$3 pricing plateau over the preceding year was quite normal by historical standards.
That actually means gas prices haven't gone up, or not by much. In the 20 years from 2001 to today, inflation roughly doubled everything
"Inflation" is a nebulous word, if you're referring to CPI, isn't oil price (via transportation, fertilizer costs) a major contributor to that increasing?
I'd expect a historic fuel price chart corrected for CPI to be roughly a horizontal line, because fuel prices majorly contribute to it.
Well a little inflation is always bound to happen. We had >$4 gasoline in the 00's when I got rid of my Tahoe as fuel was inching towards $5.
"...captured a gas station with its prices in view ..."
Where was this footage taken from, NY or NJ? Back then NJ always had stupidly cheap gasoline compared to NY. I always waited until NJ to fill up on road trips.
Comments
Demand will go down as gas keeps climbing. The days of $3 gas are fairly gone. Time to start seriously considering alternatives.
Gasoline costs a lot more than that in Europe and still everyone has a car. I think the current price is still a lot less than the market would pay.
I'm pretty sure people are going to switch to EVs rather than give up driving.
In the US there are more cars per capita than in European countries except for a couple of micro states, and many people don't have cars: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_...
(tdlr: US ~800, Central european countries ~500, some big countries much less eg Ukraine ~250)
Also, EVs still have such big CO2 footprints that they don't really solve the problem, to make a dent we'll need to curtil the growth of cars globally - considering the developing countries catching up and getting more cars there, this means radical changes. The emissions from EVs also pile on top of the emissions from burning all the oil we pump up, so in a way they're increasing emissions if we consider the oil supply to be limited.
It is worth noting that the average age of cars in the United States has been going up every year for decades now [1]. Cars continue to get more durable and thus Americans aren't scrapping them at high rates.
In many comparable countries, mandatory inspections/maintenance force older cars off the road and into scrap heaps at a much higher rate - certainly at a higher rate than necessary.
[1] https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-truc...
Yup. Converted to gallons and the US dollar in Switzerland you have to pay $9.35 for gas (CHF2.3 per liter). Yet there's no shortage of cars on the highways here.
It's always hard to compare value internationally, but...
The median income in Switzerland is about $125k USD. That's more than twice the median in the US. It sounds like the affordability of $9/gal gas is greatly different. US politicians are actually suggesting things like a stipend or stimulus payment to help people pay for gas. Ridiculous, but that's how it is.
In Romania the gas prices are about 6.38$/gallon. I'm pretty sure average income in Romania is much lower than in the US.
"The median income in Switzerland is about $125k USD."
I don't believe this for a second and sure enough the first few sources produced by a google search show a far different situations. The Swiss office of Federal Statistics says the median income is 50,120 CHF per year which is $53,880 USD at current exchange rates. Even the top 10% of the country's earners are only in the mid $90k, nowhere near $125k.
https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home/statistics/economic-soc...
From your link: "equivalised disposable income"
So it sounds like this isn't gross income.
Here is the explaination.
"It is measured by the median equivalised disposable income, after adjustment for differences in price levels between countries. This means that despite the high price levels in Switzerland, the population's financial situation, after deduction of obligatory expenditure, was in 2020 more comfortable than that of its neighbouring countries and countries in the European Union."
So the disposable median in Switzerland is about the same as the gross median in the US. It looks like the equivalised disposable income for the US is not calculated, so we can't compare that. Having a median disposable income that is about the same as the gross median of another country still seems to support my implication that the Swiss are more wealthy and can better afford the cost of gas as compared to the US.
It seems it's hard to get "good" sources for Swiss median income. They do list the median monthly wage as being around 6500. This doesn't include other income sources, and is still about double the US median income.
https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home/statistics/work-income/...
FWIW: the gas price is about the same in Germany, which has a median yearly income of about $45k.
Distances driven in the US are often much higher as well. People I know regularly commute 30 to 60 minutes one way to get to work. Some tradesmen I know are driving 2 hours to get to the jobsite.
Yep. When I go back, it'll be about 45 miles per day for my commute.
Don't people spend less on gas though since everything is so tiny in Europe and nearby?
I feel like we keep hearing this every time something big happens in the world and within a year or so, it's back to normal. Not that I believe either statement.
Back to normal, as in, new oil just magically appeared? Regardless of international situations, and I feel strange needing to say this, we will run out of cheap oil. We will also run out long before the creation of a good petrol alternative for ICE vehicles. Alternatives are how the less than wealthy are going to make it thru. For example, I have arranged my life to not need a car. Wasnt easy and I need to spend my car money on a house but it is what it is.
Location very much takes a role in being able to do this, I think.
New oil "magically" appears all the time as drilling companies find new fields and improve extraction technology. Most recently the invention of fracking made a huge difference in supply. We will never run out, but over an extended period we can expect prices to gradually increase (with some temporary fluctuations). There's still a lot of room to increase the fuel efficiency of ICE vehicles with hybrid power trains and lighter parts.
Wait, are you saying we will never run out of cheap oil? Sure, there will still be drillable oil in my lifetime but it isnt going to be used to push cars around. I am also willing to bet, insofar as getting rid of all my ICE vehicles and getting solar going etc, that petroleum products are going to be prohibitively expensive in the next 10-15 years. There is more intrigue to oil than just the cost of turning it into gas.
I am saying that in 15 years, gasoline will still be affordable for routine use by middle class people in developed countries. It will be a little more expensive but not prohibitively so. Look at long term trends for consumption versus proven reserves. More oil is found every year, and technical advancements keep making it economical to squeeze more out of existing fields.
Solar power doesn't do much to reduce petroleum demand.
ugh magically appeared is true kinda with opec pulling levers as they feel like it.
I dream of a no car life. Hate driving but it’s really tough in the US. Was in heaven for a week when I visited Switzerland
It's not like gas prices haven't gone up substantially over the past 20 years...
The new 9/11 NYC footage that was recently making the rounds captured a gas station with its prices in view, they were all $1.XX/gal.
That actually means gas prices haven't gone up, or not by much. In the 20 years from 2001 to today, inflation roughly doubled everything. If gas went from $1.9x then to $4 today, that's actually not far out of line.
The Russia supply shock this month is unusual, but the mid-$3 pricing plateau over the preceding year was quite normal by historical standards.
"Inflation" is a nebulous word, if you're referring to CPI, isn't oil price (via transportation, fertilizer costs) a major contributor to that increasing?
I'd expect a historic fuel price chart corrected for CPI to be roughly a horizontal line, because fuel prices majorly contribute to it.
Well a little inflation is always bound to happen. We had >$4 gasoline in the 00's when I got rid of my Tahoe as fuel was inching towards $5.
Where was this footage taken from, NY or NJ? Back then NJ always had stupidly cheap gasoline compared to NY. I always waited until NJ to fill up on road trips.
Looks like NYC to me, it's rather close and right on the waterfront:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gBJvGMZIYA&t=332s
Which if what you say is true about the relative local prices, suggests these are above average prices for the era and still sub $2.
They've also fluctuated quite a bit. I remember paying $1.95/gallon for gas in early 2020.
With inflation the way it is, I wouldn't doubt that prices close to $4 would be more where it stabilizes for a few years.
Demand won't go down. It will just shift to different vehicles. Hybrids and electric will go up in demand.