Exactly this. In our experience Amazon's status page doesn't reflects actual outages we are having, Cloudwatch often sends false positives (systems being down, when in fact, they are not) and SNS messages get lost in the ether.

We've built our systems to recover from failure states once we know there is a problem. AWS's inability to do that reliably is forcing us to own the problem ourself, and as a result, we will probably migrate away to use cheaper boxes in the cloud.

On the positive side, RDS has been solid.