Optimism only works in an environment of increasing energy supply and resources. Optimists in the harsh Viking Greenland colonies who tried to increase their cattle herds died of starvation, because the over grazed pasture would fail. There are records of this; it's not speculation.
For 99.99% of human history optimistically going for a venture lead to death. Not obsessively focusing on risks was a reliably horrible idea.
It's really only been since the dawn of the industrial age that optimism has been a viable strategy.
This applies to social ambition as well. Not being hyper attuned to your rank in society for most of history was a good way to get run through with a sword.
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Optimism only works in an environment of increasing energy supply and resources. Optimists in the harsh Viking Greenland colonies who tried to increase their cattle herds died of starvation, because the over grazed pasture would fail. There are records of this; it's not speculation.
For 99.99% of human history optimistically going for a venture lead to death. Not obsessively focusing on risks was a reliably horrible idea.
It's really only been since the dawn of the industrial age that optimism has been a viable strategy.
This applies to social ambition as well. Not being hyper attuned to your rank in society for most of history was a good way to get run through with a sword.