Perhaps it's more a physical thing than a metaphysical or psychological thing. We live in a universe of increasing entropy and by definition, for any expected outcome the possible disorderly states vastly outnumber the orderly ones. So when we contemplate a set of outcomes for a single future event, it is likely that we always end up contemplating more negative ones than positive ones?
Optimism only works in an environment of increasing energy supply and resources. Optimists in the harsh Viking Greenland colonies who tried to increase their cattle herds died of starvation, because the over grazed pasture would fail. There are records of this; it's not speculation.
For 99.99% of human history optimistically going for a venture lead to death. Not obsessively focusing on risks was a reliably horrible idea.
It's really only been since the dawn of the industrial age that optimism has been a viable strategy.
This applies to social ambition as well. Not being hyper attuned to your rank in society for most of history was a good way to get run through with a sword.
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Perhaps it's more a physical thing than a metaphysical or psychological thing. We live in a universe of increasing entropy and by definition, for any expected outcome the possible disorderly states vastly outnumber the orderly ones. So when we contemplate a set of outcomes for a single future event, it is likely that we always end up contemplating more negative ones than positive ones?
This was my conclusion as well. Also, planning for negative outcomes ensures survival much better than planning for positive ones.
Optimism only works in an environment of increasing energy supply and resources. Optimists in the harsh Viking Greenland colonies who tried to increase their cattle herds died of starvation, because the over grazed pasture would fail. There are records of this; it's not speculation.
For 99.99% of human history optimistically going for a venture lead to death. Not obsessively focusing on risks was a reliably horrible idea.
It's really only been since the dawn of the industrial age that optimism has been a viable strategy.
This applies to social ambition as well. Not being hyper attuned to your rank in society for most of history was a good way to get run through with a sword.