In fact, Ranter says it is more common for an accident to happen just one day after another crash than two, three or more days later.
As written, a poisson distribution wouldn't explain this. If you have a crash on day 0, then a crash on day 1 is no more likely than a crash on days 2, 3, etc.
Day 1 is the day most likely to have the next crash, but it's no more likely to have any crash.
(It could easily be the case that Ranter actually found "...just one day after the previous crash than two, three or more days later", and this subtlety got lost somewhere down the line.)
No, because if a crash occurs on both Day 1 and Day 2, then the next crash was on Day 1. The probability of a crash occurring on each day is the same, but the probability of the next crash occurring is higher for earlier days.
P(A) * P(Not A) * P(Not A) = P(Not A) * P(Not A) * P(A)
P(A) > P(Not A) * P(Not A) * P(A)
Also, of course these are not independent events: if a plane has an accident for some reason, all the future flights take extra measures to avoid the problem that caused the accident and other related problems.
Comments
As written, a poisson distribution wouldn't explain this. If you have a crash on day 0, then a crash on day 1 is no more likely than a crash on days 2, 3, etc.
Day 1 is the day most likely to have the next crash, but it's no more likely to have any crash.
(It could easily be the case that Ranter actually found "...just one day after the previous crash than two, three or more days later", and this subtlety got lost somewhere down the line.)
[deleted]
No, because if a crash occurs on both Day 1 and Day 2, then the next crash was on Day 1. The probability of a crash occurring on each day is the same, but the probability of the next crash occurring is higher for earlier days.
I agree with you, but I am not sure about this:
P(A) * P(Not A) * P(Not A) = P(Not A) * P(Not A) * P(A)
P(A) > P(Not A) * P(Not A) * P(A)
Also, of course these are not independent events: if a plane has an accident for some reason, all the future flights take extra measures to avoid the problem that caused the accident and other related problems.