No, because if a crash occurs on both Day 1 and Day 2, then the next crash was on Day 1. The probability of a crash occurring on each day is the same, but the probability of the next crash occurring is higher for earlier days.
P(A) * P(Not A) * P(Not A) = P(Not A) * P(Not A) * P(A)
P(A) > P(Not A) * P(Not A) * P(A)
Also, of course these are not independent events: if a plane has an accident for some reason, all the future flights take extra measures to avoid the problem that caused the accident and other related problems.
Comments
No, because if a crash occurs on both Day 1 and Day 2, then the next crash was on Day 1. The probability of a crash occurring on each day is the same, but the probability of the next crash occurring is higher for earlier days.
I agree with you, but I am not sure about this:
P(A) * P(Not A) * P(Not A) = P(Not A) * P(Not A) * P(A)
P(A) > P(Not A) * P(Not A) * P(A)
Also, of course these are not independent events: if a plane has an accident for some reason, all the future flights take extra measures to avoid the problem that caused the accident and other related problems.