I don’t think it’s widely accepted financial markets are in an AI bubble or there is actually any evidence to support this
It's widely reported on and discussed. You'll find plenty of people saying it isn't one, but I'm sure you can find an economist willing to take any position you like if you look hard enough. Not to mention everyone who's financially incentivised to continue to claim that there isn't a bubble.
Even the most skeptical investors to bubbles like Buffet and Burry, have large stakes in Google and Microsoft, front line bets on AI.
Burry has been warning about an AI bubble for years.
There is essentially nothing magical about being human. Our primitive brains were trained on logic, reasoning and processes. An LLM is simply this on less efficient hardware, but, improving at a speed faster than human evolution.
There is no basis for this claim. There is no evidence that human brains and the process of evolution that led to modern humans is at all similar to how LLMs function. If you're going to evaluate an LLM then evaluate an LLM, you can't say "Humans can do X, LLMs are like humans, therefore LLMs can/will do X" because there is no evidence to connect them.
It's widely reported on and discussed. You'll find plenty of people saying it isn't one, but I'm sure you can find an economist willing to take any position you like if you look hard enough. Not to mention everyone who's financially incentivised to continue to claim that there isn't a bubble.
Our media is a weaponized crap factory. There is literally nothing but propaganda and insider knowledge. You're network is how you survive today, mass media and social media and anyone that uses these medias as guidance is weaponized against their own interests. Your own critical analysis, secondary considerations, knowledge of real factual history, and your effective communications skills are how you survive. Not by listening to others and their parrot echo of some media propaganda trying to control the narrative.
There's something to say about the extreme confidence people have that AI is a bubble with perpetually pushed up timelines.
It doesn't matter that AI is useful (but so was internet).
It doesn't matter that revenues exist (mostly fake and circular).
It doesn't matter that real unit costs go down (models are getting commoditised).
It doesn't matter that the margins are high (companies are secretly hiding the real costs because that would pop the bubble).
In their world view, the bubble is predestined. There's nothing that could prevent it - even with higher demand, even with higher revenues, even with higher margins. Nothing.
It doesn't matter that AI is useful (but so was internet).
And yet we had the dotcom bubble.
It doesn't matter that revenues exist (mostly fake and circular).
Oh people are paying for AI now, but will they do so when costs go up? Will they do so when the hype dies down and they realise that it doesn't provide the benefits it claims? Remember it's a feedback loop, a depression in the stock market will make companies want to cut costs to improve their numbers, and questionable AI spend will be the first thing to go. Once this starts to burst, it goes down fast.
It doesn't matter that real unit costs go down (models are getting commoditised).
Are they? Why is every model more expensive than the last? Why are company AI spends spiralling out of control?
It doesn't matter that the margins are high (companies are secretly hiding the real costs because that would pop the bubble).
Then why is everyone except Nvidia losing money?
In their world view, the bubble is predestined.
You don't need to be a stock market genius to look at a technology that doesn't provide the benefits promised but is being sold as if it's going to change the world and see a crash coming. The bill comes due eventually, and when it does the gap between the actual value and the promised value will need to be addressed. If that's not going to be a "bubble pop" I don't know what is.
The only way the financials work out, the only way there is not some form of bubble, is if advances in AI not only continue at the current rate but speed up, and this technology becomes the most valuable invention humanity has ever made. If you believe that's the case then you're living in a fantasy world so divorced from reality that no evidence I could present would change your mind.
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It's widely reported on and discussed. You'll find plenty of people saying it isn't one, but I'm sure you can find an economist willing to take any position you like if you look hard enough. Not to mention everyone who's financially incentivised to continue to claim that there isn't a bubble.
Burry has been warning about an AI bubble for years.
There is no basis for this claim. There is no evidence that human brains and the process of evolution that led to modern humans is at all similar to how LLMs function. If you're going to evaluate an LLM then evaluate an LLM, you can't say "Humans can do X, LLMs are like humans, therefore LLMs can/will do X" because there is no evidence to connect them.
Our media is a weaponized crap factory. There is literally nothing but propaganda and insider knowledge. You're network is how you survive today, mass media and social media and anyone that uses these medias as guidance is weaponized against their own interests. Your own critical analysis, secondary considerations, knowledge of real factual history, and your effective communications skills are how you survive. Not by listening to others and their parrot echo of some media propaganda trying to control the narrative.
There's something to say about the extreme confidence people have that AI is a bubble with perpetually pushed up timelines.
It doesn't matter that AI is useful (but so was internet).
It doesn't matter that revenues exist (mostly fake and circular).
It doesn't matter that real unit costs go down (models are getting commoditised).
It doesn't matter that the margins are high (companies are secretly hiding the real costs because that would pop the bubble).
In their world view, the bubble is predestined. There's nothing that could prevent it - even with higher demand, even with higher revenues, even with higher margins. Nothing.
And yet we had the dotcom bubble.
Oh people are paying for AI now, but will they do so when costs go up? Will they do so when the hype dies down and they realise that it doesn't provide the benefits it claims? Remember it's a feedback loop, a depression in the stock market will make companies want to cut costs to improve their numbers, and questionable AI spend will be the first thing to go. Once this starts to burst, it goes down fast.
Are they? Why is every model more expensive than the last? Why are company AI spends spiralling out of control?
Then why is everyone except Nvidia losing money?
You don't need to be a stock market genius to look at a technology that doesn't provide the benefits promised but is being sold as if it's going to change the world and see a crash coming. The bill comes due eventually, and when it does the gap between the actual value and the promised value will need to be addressed. If that's not going to be a "bubble pop" I don't know what is.
The only way the financials work out, the only way there is not some form of bubble, is if advances in AI not only continue at the current rate but speed up, and this technology becomes the most valuable invention humanity has ever made. If you believe that's the case then you're living in a fantasy world so divorced from reality that no evidence I could present would change your mind.