It doesn't matter that AI is useful (but so was internet).
And yet we had the dotcom bubble.
It doesn't matter that revenues exist (mostly fake and circular).
Oh people are paying for AI now, but will they do so when costs go up? Will they do so when the hype dies down and they realise that it doesn't provide the benefits it claims? Remember it's a feedback loop, a depression in the stock market will make companies want to cut costs to improve their numbers, and questionable AI spend will be the first thing to go. Once this starts to burst, it goes down fast.
It doesn't matter that real unit costs go down (models are getting commoditised).
Are they? Why is every model more expensive than the last? Why are company AI spends spiralling out of control?
It doesn't matter that the margins are high (companies are secretly hiding the real costs because that would pop the bubble).
Then why is everyone except Nvidia losing money?
In their world view, the bubble is predestined.
You don't need to be a stock market genius to look at a technology that doesn't provide the benefits promised but is being sold as if it's going to change the world and see a crash coming. The bill comes due eventually, and when it does the gap between the actual value and the promised value will need to be addressed. If that's not going to be a "bubble pop" I don't know what is.
The only way the financials work out, the only way there is not some form of bubble, is if advances in AI not only continue at the current rate but speed up, and this technology becomes the most valuable invention humanity has ever made. If you believe that's the case then you're living in a fantasy world so divorced from reality that no evidence I could present would change your mind.
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And yet we had the dotcom bubble.
Oh people are paying for AI now, but will they do so when costs go up? Will they do so when the hype dies down and they realise that it doesn't provide the benefits it claims? Remember it's a feedback loop, a depression in the stock market will make companies want to cut costs to improve their numbers, and questionable AI spend will be the first thing to go. Once this starts to burst, it goes down fast.
Are they? Why is every model more expensive than the last? Why are company AI spends spiralling out of control?
Then why is everyone except Nvidia losing money?
You don't need to be a stock market genius to look at a technology that doesn't provide the benefits promised but is being sold as if it's going to change the world and see a crash coming. The bill comes due eventually, and when it does the gap between the actual value and the promised value will need to be addressed. If that's not going to be a "bubble pop" I don't know what is.
The only way the financials work out, the only way there is not some form of bubble, is if advances in AI not only continue at the current rate but speed up, and this technology becomes the most valuable invention humanity has ever made. If you believe that's the case then you're living in a fantasy world so divorced from reality that no evidence I could present would change your mind.