No, I just have a prior that’s informed by real information and evidence and that’s quite strong.

- scaling laws exist

- downstream perf trends also exist (epoch capability index)

- gpt4 to gpt5 leap in capabilities every 16-18 months

- actual adoption and retention and engagement numbers are out of this world

- RL with verifiable rewards will get you to super human performance even with poor sample efficiency

- zero evidence of a plateau

I don’t know the future I am just skeptically looking at the data.

What data are you looking at?