Comment on We need tech news sources which exclude AIparentComments−zombot2moGreat that you know the future when nobody else can.−aspenmartin2moNo, I just have a prior that’s informed by real information and evidence and that’s quite strong.- scaling laws exist- downstream perf trends also exist (epoch capability index)- gpt4 to gpt5 leap in capabilities every 16-18 months- actual adoption and retention and engagement numbers are out of this world- RL with verifiable rewards will get you to super human performance even with poor sample efficiency- zero evidence of a plateauI don’t know the future I am just skeptically looking at the data.What data are you looking at?
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Great that you know the future when nobody else can.
No, I just have a prior that’s informed by real information and evidence and that’s quite strong.
- scaling laws exist
- downstream perf trends also exist (epoch capability index)
- gpt4 to gpt5 leap in capabilities every 16-18 months
- actual adoption and retention and engagement numbers are out of this world
- RL with verifiable rewards will get you to super human performance even with poor sample efficiency
- zero evidence of a plateau
I don’t know the future I am just skeptically looking at the data.
What data are you looking at?