I think the statistics they use to compare to human drivers are slightly misleading. They compare to the average human driver. I'm not sure I would entrust my life to a random driver, who could be a teenager who just got their driver's license, a 90-year-old grandma, or someone with prior reckless driving citations. For comparison, here are the requirements to become a taxi driver in San Francisco: [San Francisco Taxi Driver Requirements](https://www.sfmta.com/getting-around/taxi/become-taxi-driver).
In conclusion, Waymo, being a taxi service, should compare their safety record to that of human taxi drivers.
Exactly, the scenario of everybody using a robotaxi should be compared to the scenario of everybody using taxis but not because of the requirements for obtaining a license. Instead I expect taxi drivers to drive safely because 1) their customers would report them if they drive dangerously and 2) crashes would prevent them from working and cost them the income of several days or worse.
If they crash they don't make money. I don't live in the USA and I remember that taxi drivers were very fast when I was young. They are among the slowest drivers now.
Just a nitpick: average != random. The average driver is not a student teenager or a 90 year old.
Also, a taxi driver may not be a good baseline since what you're replacing is not exactly taxi drivers but instead you're replacing some taxi drivers but also yourself.
(1) But the goal is also to get “random drivers” to stop driving. In theory, you may one day be able to own a private self-driving car, with the same safety record.
(2) Uber drivers have a reputation for being extremely aggressive and don’t need a special license. I’d also like to see how they compare.
(3) I do want to see the data you propose, because I think you’re fundamentally right.
Comments
I think the statistics they use to compare to human drivers are slightly misleading. They compare to the average human driver. I'm not sure I would entrust my life to a random driver, who could be a teenager who just got their driver's license, a 90-year-old grandma, or someone with prior reckless driving citations. For comparison, here are the requirements to become a taxi driver in San Francisco: [San Francisco Taxi Driver Requirements](https://www.sfmta.com/getting-around/taxi/become-taxi-driver).
In conclusion, Waymo, being a taxi service, should compare their safety record to that of human taxi drivers.
Exactly, the scenario of everybody using a robotaxi should be compared to the scenario of everybody using taxis but not because of the requirements for obtaining a license. Instead I expect taxi drivers to drive safely because 1) their customers would report them if they drive dangerously and 2) crashes would prevent them from working and cost them the income of several days or worse.
Taxi drivers are incentivized to drive as wrecklessly as possible (with a w). Safety is not their top priority, making money is.
If they crash they don't make money. I don't live in the USA and I remember that taxi drivers were very fast when I was young. They are among the slowest drivers now.
Just a nitpick: average != random. The average driver is not a student teenager or a 90 year old.
Also, a taxi driver may not be a good baseline since what you're replacing is not exactly taxi drivers but instead you're replacing some taxi drivers but also yourself.
(1) But the goal is also to get “random drivers” to stop driving. In theory, you may one day be able to own a private self-driving car, with the same safety record.
(2) Uber drivers have a reputation for being extremely aggressive and don’t need a special license. I’d also like to see how they compare.
(3) I do want to see the data you propose, because I think you’re fundamentally right.
If we're going down this road I'd like to see how a Waymo taxi fares in a fucking blizzard.
I would too! But don't worry, I'm sure we will eventually.
For some reason, not having solved every possible angle of driving from day 1 makes it seem like the technology isn't worth pursuing.
But let me ask this: do you have ABS on your car, or do you pump the brakes to stop when it's bad out like it's still 1980?