AI capabilities increase year after year and month after month and the AI will simply be able to bide its time to start the game. To use the chess metaphor the table is set where humanity has all the pieces and AI only its king - but every hour AI adds another piece. If we never make a move we will face it at full strength.
This is an excellent analogy and you’re right that it’s imperative we nip this in the bud.
Not at all. My children aren't on the path to becoming more capable than humanity. If my children are violent criminals I expect human civilization will be able to handle them. I don't have that expectation for AI.
Omega appears and tells you your child will have an probability P to be the next Mao, only conditional on the child surviving to adulthood. At which P do you drown the child?
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This is an excellent analogy and you’re right that it’s imperative we nip this in the bud.
This logic says you should beat your child in case they grow up to be a violent criminal:
A self-fulfilling prophecy that precipitates the very conflict it ostensibly avoids.
Not at all. My children aren't on the path to becoming more capable than humanity. If my children are violent criminals I expect human civilization will be able to handle them. I don't have that expectation for AI.
Omega appears and tells you your child will have an probability P to be the next Mao, only conditional on the child surviving to adulthood. At which P do you drown the child?