I understand your broader point, which is that progress in this space will be discontinuous and hard to see until it’s already happened.
But two years ago, GPT-3 was already astounding. ChatGPT made some pretty huge gains, and GPT4 more still, but the thing that exists today was relatively predictable, compared to a world where human effort is no longer important.
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2 years ago something like ChatGPT (as limited as it is) was “far from our current reality”.
I think it’s worthwhile to think ahead.
I understand your broader point, which is that progress in this space will be discontinuous and hard to see until it’s already happened.
But two years ago, GPT-3 was already astounding. ChatGPT made some pretty huge gains, and GPT4 more still, but the thing that exists today was relatively predictable, compared to a world where human effort is no longer important.