China may be making plans if wars come their way. They'd be stupidly negligent not to do so. But they will be avoiding war for at least another decade unless forced into one. That will be foolishly and mistakenly construed as weakness by the West.
But in fact, China is steadily progressing on its way. It's an arithmetical certainty that in a few years, China will take over the 'Number One ' slot. Why would China have a war with anybody? That would only slow them down. And sooner or later, Taiwan will see which way will be more advantageous for them and will merge with China peacefully. (As with West and East Germany in the 1990s).
On the other hand, It's the US that can only slow the Chinese down by going to war to prevent the US losing the 'Number One' slot. How can it be 'exceptional' if it's not 'Number One'? And to initiate a war with China, there has to be some sort of casus-belli. Taiwan currently is a reasonably good candidate for this, as was done with Ukraine from about 2014 on.
The problem the US has with China is that China has more manufacturing capacity and more men of military-age than the whole of the West combined. To ensure victory in a war with China, the US needed to have started the conflict back around 2020 when the US was stronger and China was weaker. The US has missed that bus. It is too late. It can not win against China now.
This is what people are missing, defeating US / degrading US prescence in East Asia / PRC backyard that put and sustains PRC-TW civil war in stasis is the ultimate PRC strategic vision. I think fundementally PRC (and US) planners understand that historically outside hegemons are not displaced via politics but kinetic war. US isn't going to relinquish East Asian security architecture without a fight - bulk of PLA modernization is directed towards that fight.
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There was no indication that China would go to war now. But the Pelosi visit made war more likely in the next few years.
And as mentioned, war would benefit no one except defense stocks. Certainly not American tax payers like myself.
So if America isn’t going to win the war, everyone will pay a heavy price, then why disturb the balance? This is a rhetorical question.
War must benefit the Chinese in some way if they are considering it.
China may be making plans if wars come their way. They'd be stupidly negligent not to do so. But they will be avoiding war for at least another decade unless forced into one. That will be foolishly and mistakenly construed as weakness by the West.
But in fact, China is steadily progressing on its way. It's an arithmetical certainty that in a few years, China will take over the 'Number One ' slot. Why would China have a war with anybody? That would only slow them down. And sooner or later, Taiwan will see which way will be more advantageous for them and will merge with China peacefully. (As with West and East Germany in the 1990s).
On the other hand, It's the US that can only slow the Chinese down by going to war to prevent the US losing the 'Number One' slot. How can it be 'exceptional' if it's not 'Number One'? And to initiate a war with China, there has to be some sort of casus-belli. Taiwan currently is a reasonably good candidate for this, as was done with Ukraine from about 2014 on.
The problem the US has with China is that China has more manufacturing capacity and more men of military-age than the whole of the West combined. To ensure victory in a war with China, the US needed to have started the conflict back around 2020 when the US was stronger and China was weaker. The US has missed that bus. It is too late. It can not win against China now.
This is what people are missing, defeating US / degrading US prescence in East Asia / PRC backyard that put and sustains PRC-TW civil war in stasis is the ultimate PRC strategic vision. I think fundementally PRC (and US) planners understand that historically outside hegemons are not displaced via politics but kinetic war. US isn't going to relinquish East Asian security architecture without a fight - bulk of PLA modernization is directed towards that fight.