Comment on Astronomers in China Claim Possible Detection of Extraterrestrial CivilizationsparentComments−hdjjhhvvhga4yThis was a very honest sentence in this article, in stark contrast to the title.−iso16314yThe currently headline in the report they link to ishttps://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/BtLLCb0GlPxjmhbAz5pUOw搜寻地外文明，“中国天眼”发现可疑信号Which google translates asSearching for extraterrestrial civilization, "China Sky Eye" found suspicious signalsSounds reasonable.−WithinReason4yIt's true that it may have been aliens, it's just an extremely low probability.−suifbwish4yI’m genuinely curious. I would agree it’s possible that either could be true but how exactly would you even begin to speculate let alone calculate the supposed probability of either possibility?−WithinReason4yIt was never aliens before, so the prior is very strong−suifbwish4yWouldn’t the probability that the next time it would be aliens increase every time it turns out to not be aliens−WithinReason4yActually it would decrease−euroderf4yGuerrilla marketing for The Dark Forest ?
Comments
This was a very honest sentence in this article, in stark contrast to the title.
The currently headline in the report they link to is
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/BtLLCb0GlPxjmhbAz5pUOw
Which google translates as
Sounds reasonable.
It's true that it may have been aliens, it's just an extremely low probability.
I’m genuinely curious. I would agree it’s possible that either could be true but how exactly would you even begin to speculate let alone calculate the supposed probability of either possibility?
It was never aliens before, so the prior is very strong
Wouldn’t the probability that the next time it would be aliens increase every time it turns out to not be aliens
Actually it would decrease
Guerrilla marketing for The Dark Forest ?