My money is on the military invasion of Taiwan happening in May of this year.
Not only is the incoming Biden administration entirely favorable to China (and includes some of the same advisors who had Obama stand down during the Scarborough Shoal incident), but May is the month where China once again will hold the Presidency over the UN Security Council and gets to set its agenda.
They're perfectly set up to stymy any international response that may be called for. Given the money flowing westward under Belt and Road, I imagine that won't be much of an outcry anyway, save for the expected parties (Japan, The Philippines, Vietnam).
Does the security council thing even matter honestly?
Like even if PLA marches on Taiwan now and US doesn't want to get in the war, what difference can security council make which otherwise would not have been possible outside security council?
No. Actually it doesn't matter at all, but China would rather not lose face of it being on the agenda to discuss at all. And that does matter, at least to China.
If they can sew up the whole thing inside of the month, I think it's a move they'll definitely make.
Plus the rest of the world is preoccupied with this virus.
Comments
My money is on the military invasion of Taiwan happening in May of this year.
Not only is the incoming Biden administration entirely favorable to China (and includes some of the same advisors who had Obama stand down during the Scarborough Shoal incident), but May is the month where China once again will hold the Presidency over the UN Security Council and gets to set its agenda.
They're perfectly set up to stymy any international response that may be called for. Given the money flowing westward under Belt and Road, I imagine that won't be much of an outcry anyway, save for the expected parties (Japan, The Philippines, Vietnam).
Does the security council thing even matter honestly?
Like even if PLA marches on Taiwan now and US doesn't want to get in the war, what difference can security council make which otherwise would not have been possible outside security council?
No. Actually it doesn't matter at all, but China would rather not lose face of it being on the agenda to discuss at all. And that does matter, at least to China.
If they can sew up the whole thing inside of the month, I think it's a move they'll definitely make.
Plus the rest of the world is preoccupied with this virus.