There are two key areas of focus for the Chinese government, there's growing the power of their country as a whole, and there's maintaining the party's power over the country. Take a look at Hongkong - is it a smart move for China to destroy one of its wealthiest, most powerful international cities? No. But it is vital to China's second goal - to maintain absolute control over the country.
So far it's been pretty clear cut the first goal hasn't been too badly impacted by their second goal.
The Hong Kong episode might not upset people in PRC as they are being brought under same laws as people in PRC. Top entrepreneurs/researchers/engineers can buy HK activists being malicious or they can be just indifferent to them as that is not their problem.
But this will be as this is a lot more relatable.
Also, the value of HK for PRC has reduced over time so PRC could afford to do it now.
My money is on the military invasion of Taiwan happening in May of this year.
Not only is the incoming Biden administration entirely favorable to China (and includes some of the same advisors who had Obama stand down during the Scarborough Shoal incident), but May is the month where China once again will hold the Presidency over the UN Security Council and gets to set its agenda.
They're perfectly set up to stymy any international response that may be called for. Given the money flowing westward under Belt and Road, I imagine that won't be much of an outcry anyway, save for the expected parties (Japan, The Philippines, Vietnam).
Does the security council thing even matter honestly?
Like even if PLA marches on Taiwan now and US doesn't want to get in the war, what difference can security council make which otherwise would not have been possible outside security council?
No. Actually it doesn't matter at all, but China would rather not lose face of it being on the agenda to discuss at all. And that does matter, at least to China.
If they can sew up the whole thing inside of the month, I think it's a move they'll definitely make.
Plus the rest of the world is preoccupied with this virus.
Comments
There are two key areas of focus for the Chinese government, there's growing the power of their country as a whole, and there's maintaining the party's power over the country. Take a look at Hongkong - is it a smart move for China to destroy one of its wealthiest, most powerful international cities? No. But it is vital to China's second goal - to maintain absolute control over the country.
So far it's been pretty clear cut the first goal hasn't been too badly impacted by their second goal.
The Hong Kong episode might not upset people in PRC as they are being brought under same laws as people in PRC. Top entrepreneurs/researchers/engineers can buy HK activists being malicious or they can be just indifferent to them as that is not their problem.
But this will be as this is a lot more relatable.
Also, the value of HK for PRC has reduced over time so PRC could afford to do it now.
My money is on the military invasion of Taiwan happening in May of this year.
Not only is the incoming Biden administration entirely favorable to China (and includes some of the same advisors who had Obama stand down during the Scarborough Shoal incident), but May is the month where China once again will hold the Presidency over the UN Security Council and gets to set its agenda.
They're perfectly set up to stymy any international response that may be called for. Given the money flowing westward under Belt and Road, I imagine that won't be much of an outcry anyway, save for the expected parties (Japan, The Philippines, Vietnam).
Does the security council thing even matter honestly?
Like even if PLA marches on Taiwan now and US doesn't want to get in the war, what difference can security council make which otherwise would not have been possible outside security council?
No. Actually it doesn't matter at all, but China would rather not lose face of it being on the agenda to discuss at all. And that does matter, at least to China.
If they can sew up the whole thing inside of the month, I think it's a move they'll definitely make.
Plus the rest of the world is preoccupied with this virus.