There's a weird period during things that appear truly disruptive where the established player may try to buy you. This happens when it becomes clear there's a non-zero chance that the established player may quickly become extinct because of the new player's growth, however it is still not inevitable. Lately, the most prominent examples of this have come with Facebook's successful and failed acquisitions. For example:
Instagram in Apr. 2012: Facebook is about photos, but it wasn't crushing mobile like it is today. Instagram was, but it still wasn't clear whether Instagram's growth would top out or what monetization would look like. Facebook made a $1bn offer that many thought was crazy, but Instagram is now worth (by many estimates) 30-50x that.
ON THE OTHER HAND:
Snapchat ~Nov 2013: Snapchat pioneered an entirely new way to interact with photos on a phone - another existential crisis for Facebook. Facebook offers $3bn in cash. To an extent FAR greater than when Zuck made the offer to Instagram, people were aligned in saying Evan S should take the offer. Snapchat, after all, in many people's minds was about sexting and distasteful things - take the money. Growth would top out eventually, people would get over it. Evan, however, disagreed - Snapchat wasn't mostly used for sexting, it was used for sharing moments. And it was working, and in fact it had become inevitable to him. Zuck went through the same thing getting offers from Yahoo and Microsoft at Facebook, and he was right. Evan, FWIW, I think is also right - Snapchat is going to change the game.
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There's a weird period during things that appear truly disruptive where the established player may try to buy you. This happens when it becomes clear there's a non-zero chance that the established player may quickly become extinct because of the new player's growth, however it is still not inevitable. Lately, the most prominent examples of this have come with Facebook's successful and failed acquisitions. For example:
Instagram in Apr. 2012: Facebook is about photos, but it wasn't crushing mobile like it is today. Instagram was, but it still wasn't clear whether Instagram's growth would top out or what monetization would look like. Facebook made a $1bn offer that many thought was crazy, but Instagram is now worth (by many estimates) 30-50x that.
ON THE OTHER HAND:
Snapchat ~Nov 2013: Snapchat pioneered an entirely new way to interact with photos on a phone - another existential crisis for Facebook. Facebook offers $3bn in cash. To an extent FAR greater than when Zuck made the offer to Instagram, people were aligned in saying Evan S should take the offer. Snapchat, after all, in many people's minds was about sexting and distasteful things - take the money. Growth would top out eventually, people would get over it. Evan, however, disagreed - Snapchat wasn't mostly used for sexting, it was used for sharing moments. And it was working, and in fact it had become inevitable to him. Zuck went through the same thing getting offers from Yahoo and Microsoft at Facebook, and he was right. Evan, FWIW, I think is also right - Snapchat is going to change the game.