Eventually, yeah. There is a finite supply of land on Manhattan, and demand from foreign buyers is growing. Downtown and midtown are already saturated, so the billion dollar condo buildings of 2040 will need to be built somewhere.
I hear this often, but it doesn't jive with my impressions of Manhattan (lived there years ago, visit periodically). In particular, significant parts of the island top out at walk-up heights (5-6 stories). The economics of rent in Manhattan would change dramatically if the island were rebuilt using modern technologies (chiefly: elevators and the taller buildings they enable).
Without knowing the local politics, it seems obvious that there is some force that is preventing the low-productivity uses of land (broadly: "short buildings") from being converted into higher-productivity uses (chiefly "taller buildings"). There's only a finite supply of ground -- this does not mean there has to be a finite supply of usable indoor space. The latter is a choice that can presumably be changed when the will arises.
You can't just tear down some 4-story building and put up sky scrappers. There is a maximum density capacity that a lot of Manhattan already exceeds. The trains, sewers and electrical requirements need to be thought of too. Especially the trains which are already way over capacity.
Look at what has happened in Williamsburg and the L-train. As more and more warehouses have been converted into apartments and new condo's have gone up, the L-train has become awful for large parts of the day. And the train runs as often as possible during those times.
I'm not saying you can't do these things but I do think other things need to be considered.
I don't see any particular reason that Inwood will be more desirable in 2040 than Brooklyn Heights. Being physically on the island of Manhattan just isn't that big a deal. What matters in the long run seems to be commuting time and to a lesser extent zoning and projects.
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Eventually, yeah. There is a finite supply of land on Manhattan, and demand from foreign buyers is growing. Downtown and midtown are already saturated, so the billion dollar condo buildings of 2040 will need to be built somewhere.
I hear this often, but it doesn't jive with my impressions of Manhattan (lived there years ago, visit periodically). In particular, significant parts of the island top out at walk-up heights (5-6 stories). The economics of rent in Manhattan would change dramatically if the island were rebuilt using modern technologies (chiefly: elevators and the taller buildings they enable).
Without knowing the local politics, it seems obvious that there is some force that is preventing the low-productivity uses of land (broadly: "short buildings") from being converted into higher-productivity uses (chiefly "taller buildings"). There's only a finite supply of ground -- this does not mean there has to be a finite supply of usable indoor space. The latter is a choice that can presumably be changed when the will arises.
You can't just tear down some 4-story building and put up sky scrappers. There is a maximum density capacity that a lot of Manhattan already exceeds. The trains, sewers and electrical requirements need to be thought of too. Especially the trains which are already way over capacity.
Look at what has happened in Williamsburg and the L-train. As more and more warehouses have been converted into apartments and new condo's have gone up, the L-train has become awful for large parts of the day. And the train runs as often as possible during those times.
I'm not saying you can't do these things but I do think other things need to be considered.
Historically it was partly because the later-developed parts of the city were built on less viable land (i.e. swamp/landfill)
I don't see any particular reason that Inwood will be more desirable in 2040 than Brooklyn Heights. Being physically on the island of Manhattan just isn't that big a deal. What matters in the long run seems to be commuting time and to a lesser extent zoning and projects.
Looking at this heat map: http://project.wnyc.org/transit-time/#40.75805,-73.98571,12,...
I'd be bullish on Sunnyside / western Woodside.