You should not. But a lot of (more positively thinking) people might like the risk/reward. After all, Elon is 4 for 4 in making people fabulously wealthy off very-hard-to-do projects (I know he's not officially involved but some of his people are like Sacks and Pishevar are).
For me, it isn't a positive / negative thinking thing. What I struggle with is the series of steps that this company goes through which have it justifying a valuation of even $100M (which it won't because nobody IPO's all of the equity, so for a $100M raise they are probably assuming a $1B valuation).
If you have some thoughts on how that would work please share them. I'd like to learn.
I'm guessing (and I will know more when I read their S-1) that they build their test track, they prove out the concept, then win a contract to build a larger one from one of the states? So how far does that $100M get them? Does it get the 5-mile track built and operating? Looking at other complex projects, say the London Eye, which cost $100M in 1999. And it's just a Ferris wheel. I don't know of a 5 mile rail project that has cost less than about half a billion but I would certainly grant you that those tend to be bid on by cost+ contractors.
So I'm just trying to connect the dots on how they "go to market" as it were.
Comments
You should not. But a lot of (more positively thinking) people might like the risk/reward. After all, Elon is 4 for 4 in making people fabulously wealthy off very-hard-to-do projects (I know he's not officially involved but some of his people are like Sacks and Pishevar are).
For me, it isn't a positive / negative thinking thing. What I struggle with is the series of steps that this company goes through which have it justifying a valuation of even $100M (which it won't because nobody IPO's all of the equity, so for a $100M raise they are probably assuming a $1B valuation).
If you have some thoughts on how that would work please share them. I'd like to learn.
I'm guessing (and I will know more when I read their S-1) that they build their test track, they prove out the concept, then win a contract to build a larger one from one of the states? So how far does that $100M get them? Does it get the 5-mile track built and operating? Looking at other complex projects, say the London Eye, which cost $100M in 1999. And it's just a Ferris wheel. I don't know of a 5 mile rail project that has cost less than about half a billion but I would certainly grant you that those tend to be bid on by cost+ contractors.
So I'm just trying to connect the dots on how they "go to market" as it were.