Good points. Under the right circumstances, the "wisdom of crowds" can be really compelling. A couple of years back, I ran the data from an Oscar contest that had run over the course of about 30 years and the consensus pick each year was soundly the long-term winner. [1] However, it's an approach that doesn't seem to have been hugely generalizable.
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Good points. Under the right circumstances, the "wisdom of crowds" can be really compelling. A couple of years back, I ran the data from an Oscar contest that had run over the course of about 30 years and the consensus pick each year was soundly the long-term winner. [1] However, it's an approach that doesn't seem to have been hugely generalizable.
[1] http://bitmason.blogspot.com/2012/04/crowdsourcing-predictio...