We have no evidence that "Hollywood AI" is nigh, no evidence it will "explode" and become super-human in a short period of time (and some very good counter-arguments against this scenario), and no evidence it would be intrinsically more dangerous than we are to each other. The whole fear mongering topic seems rooted in a tower of speculations that becomes increasingly precarious as you ascend.
Agreed.
... I realized that these fears might be rooted in the fear of disruption.
Yes, that might be part of it.
Another part is that ideas that are both interesting and plausible tend to be more visible. Lots of people will pay to hear Ray Kurzweil speak about how the next 20 years are going to be absolutely amazing. Not so many want to hear you or me saying, "Well, maybe not."
Ideas like those of RK have always been interesting. In 1960, when a computer was a mysterious machine in the back room, surrounded by white-coated technicians (and even they weren't too sure what it could do), such ideas were plausible, too. In 1990, when a computer was a machine for typing letters or playing lousy games -- not so much. But today we all have a box in our pocket that responds to voice commands, and we hear about self-driving cars. So this amazing future becomes plausible again.
This combination of interest and plausibility means we hear a lot more about the possibilities of strong AI than arguments against them. Even your own post contains 2 links for, and just 1 against. And guess which ones will be spread. No one says, "Hey! I just read this cool article about how computers aren't going to become intelligent any time soon!" So despite the relatively easy arguments against the radical futurists, the people making them are not heard much.
Interesting food for thought, don't you think?
Indeed. Lots of thoughts. No time to write them all ....
Comments
Agreed.
Yes, that might be part of it.
Another part is that ideas that are both interesting and plausible tend to be more visible. Lots of people will pay to hear Ray Kurzweil speak about how the next 20 years are going to be absolutely amazing. Not so many want to hear you or me saying, "Well, maybe not."
Ideas like those of RK have always been interesting. In 1960, when a computer was a mysterious machine in the back room, surrounded by white-coated technicians (and even they weren't too sure what it could do), such ideas were plausible, too. In 1990, when a computer was a machine for typing letters or playing lousy games -- not so much. But today we all have a box in our pocket that responds to voice commands, and we hear about self-driving cars. So this amazing future becomes plausible again.
This combination of interest and plausibility means we hear a lot more about the possibilities of strong AI than arguments against them. Even your own post contains 2 links for, and just 1 against. And guess which ones will be spread. No one says, "Hey! I just read this cool article about how computers aren't going to become intelligent any time soon!" So despite the relatively easy arguments against the radical futurists, the people making them are not heard much.
Indeed. Lots of thoughts. No time to write them all ....