Charles Murray threw out a number like $30k for the average family but that was based on $10k per person.[1] But let's do a very generous envelope calculation and say that all of the 109 million Americans who current receive some form of welfare assistance suddenly become eligible for $10k per year. That's $1.09 trillion in new spending. BUT -- we currently spend about $450 billion annually on welfare programs, so your net increase is only $559 billion.
And that's assuming everyone gets $10k without considering the 50% decrease in aid for each additional dollar earned. If we use the $360 billion number someone else threw out, you could actually reduce spending by $90 billion annually if BI replaced large federal/state welfare programs.
And none of that is counting the extra economic activity when people on SSDI -- which has stopped being a long-term disability program and become a stop-gap aid for the "systemically unemployable" until they can collect Social Security at 62 -- are allowed to openly perform some work at their ability level. Right now they have to keep up the charade that they are "disabled" even if their SSDI qualification is only because they lack the skills to find a job during the 10-15 years before Social Security eligibility.
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Charles Murray threw out a number like $30k for the average family but that was based on $10k per person.[1] But let's do a very generous envelope calculation and say that all of the 109 million Americans who current receive some form of welfare assistance suddenly become eligible for $10k per year. That's $1.09 trillion in new spending. BUT -- we currently spend about $450 billion annually on welfare programs, so your net increase is only $559 billion.
And that's assuming everyone gets $10k without considering the 50% decrease in aid for each additional dollar earned. If we use the $360 billion number someone else threw out, you could actually reduce spending by $90 billion annually if BI replaced large federal/state welfare programs.
And none of that is counting the extra economic activity when people on SSDI -- which has stopped being a long-term disability program and become a stop-gap aid for the "systemically unemployable" until they can collect Social Security at 62 -- are allowed to openly perform some work at their ability level. Right now they have to keep up the charade that they are "disabled" even if their SSDI qualification is only because they lack the skills to find a job during the 10-15 years before Social Security eligibility.
[1] http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/libertarian-charles...