This is the core of Tyler Cowen's "Average Is Over." I liked the articles premise, but I think Occam would lean towards Cowen's thesis as being correct. The ability to truly innovate (on the _level_ of steam engines and electricity, which is what we're talking about) now requires a lot more time and effort. We've also (since the 1980s) become a short-termist culture (transparency, accountability, and demands for ROI do, in fact, have a downside) which has caused us to pull back on R&D (especially using public money for moonshots.) The best we can hope for now is that our new Bell Labs-equivalents (Google, Musk and Co., even Facebook) continue to subsidize innovation R&D that does not guarantee a return, but would have immense effects if they did (Calico, autonomous cars, etc.)
Comments
This is the core of Tyler Cowen's "Average Is Over." I liked the articles premise, but I think Occam would lean towards Cowen's thesis as being correct. The ability to truly innovate (on the _level_ of steam engines and electricity, which is what we're talking about) now requires a lot more time and effort. We've also (since the 1980s) become a short-termist culture (transparency, accountability, and demands for ROI do, in fact, have a downside) which has caused us to pull back on R&D (especially using public money for moonshots.) The best we can hope for now is that our new Bell Labs-equivalents (Google, Musk and Co., even Facebook) continue to subsidize innovation R&D that does not guarantee a return, but would have immense effects if they did (Calico, autonomous cars, etc.)