The Conservatives did not win a majority in 2010. Thus, if they are to win a majority this year, they need to be doing better. However...
They tried to trade their boundary change bill in exchange for House of Lords reform, but failed because of a rebellion in their own ranks. Thus the constituency borders are favourable to Labour.
During their term, UKIP became the 3rd most popular party, which is splitting their vote.
Labour's popularity has also increased since 2010 (when it was at record lows).
The Conservatives' only saving grace is that if Labour does not achieve a majority, David Cameron gets the first chance to try to form a government.
However the mechanics of FPTP are such that UKIP are unlikely to achieve a share of seats proportional to their vote, and the Lib Dems are unlikely to be completely annihilated.
So the most likely outcome is that neither Conservative + Lib Dem nor Conservative + UKIP will add up to a majority. A three-way is right out.
They can of course try for a minority government, but if Labour are almost at a majority and the Cons are much further away, the Queen (should) say "Errrr... no".
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The Conservatives did not win a majority in 2010. Thus, if they are to win a majority this year, they need to be doing better. However...
They tried to trade their boundary change bill in exchange for House of Lords reform, but failed because of a rebellion in their own ranks. Thus the constituency borders are favourable to Labour.
During their term, UKIP became the 3rd most popular party, which is splitting their vote.
Labour's popularity has also increased since 2010 (when it was at record lows).
The Conservatives' only saving grace is that if Labour does not achieve a majority, David Cameron gets the first chance to try to form a government.
However the mechanics of FPTP are such that UKIP are unlikely to achieve a share of seats proportional to their vote, and the Lib Dems are unlikely to be completely annihilated.
So the most likely outcome is that neither Conservative + Lib Dem nor Conservative + UKIP will add up to a majority. A three-way is right out.
They can of course try for a minority government, but if Labour are almost at a majority and the Cons are much further away, the Queen (should) say "Errrr... no".