I feel like Airbnb and Uber are both large and popular enough, at this point, to push regulation in the direction they see fit. Anyone standing in their path will be labeled protector of the old monopolies and anti-consumer.
Maybe in the US (but I think thats debatable). Not certain for the Rest of the World, for example the EU sees regulation as being pro-consumer - it protects the consumer from bad practices from a company.
To me, its clear there is a non-zero risk that both businesses could get squeezed by regulation - the investors are betting that there won't be an impact from regulation or that the cost of following the regulation will be worth it (which you'd expect if you've got the scale to follow through).
The problem is the underlying market for Uber (taxi and hire cars) can't generate enough profit to support their current valuation. When you add in that Uber and similar companies are destroying the monopoly rents that the industry was enjoying then the problem is even worse.
Regulation change doesn't benefit only Uber though. It benefits all current riding sharing companies, as well as any future ones that might join the fray. In that sense, regulation change doesn't increase Uber's intrinsic value at all. If Google, for example, joins the ride sharing game then Uber will be in serious trouble.
If they can build an entire fleet of automated cars? Abso-freaking-lutely. How much would you be willing to pay annually to not have to own a car but have one available at your fingertips at any time? My car payment + insurance comes to be about $7000/year. Throw in gas prices and we're probably at around $10,000 per year for my vehicle.
Factor in my girlfriend and our household is at around $20k.
If Google can charge me $10k-$15k annually to not own a car but be able to have it available all the time? What's $10k * 137,000,000? [1] At those levels, the failed Uber experiment can be a whimsical write-off. Or perhaps it's a strategic venture to handle some of these pesky regulations we're always talking about Uber fighting.
I don't want to own a car. I just want to have the freedom to be mobile at a moments notice.
Comments
I feel like Airbnb and Uber are both large and popular enough, at this point, to push regulation in the direction they see fit. Anyone standing in their path will be labeled protector of the old monopolies and anti-consumer.
Maybe in the US (but I think thats debatable). Not certain for the Rest of the World, for example the EU sees regulation as being pro-consumer - it protects the consumer from bad practices from a company.
To me, its clear there is a non-zero risk that both businesses could get squeezed by regulation - the investors are betting that there won't be an impact from regulation or that the cost of following the regulation will be worth it (which you'd expect if you've got the scale to follow through).
The problem is the underlying market for Uber (taxi and hire cars) can't generate enough profit to support their current valuation. When you add in that Uber and similar companies are destroying the monopoly rents that the industry was enjoying then the problem is even worse.
Regulation change doesn't benefit only Uber though. It benefits all current riding sharing companies, as well as any future ones that might join the fray. In that sense, regulation change doesn't increase Uber's intrinsic value at all. If Google, for example, joins the ride sharing game then Uber will be in serious trouble.
Google Ventures is a major investor in Uber - does Google often invest in companies that they go on to compete with?
If they can build an entire fleet of automated cars? Abso-freaking-lutely. How much would you be willing to pay annually to not have to own a car but have one available at your fingertips at any time? My car payment + insurance comes to be about $7000/year. Throw in gas prices and we're probably at around $10,000 per year for my vehicle.
Factor in my girlfriend and our household is at around $20k.
If Google can charge me $10k-$15k annually to not own a car but be able to have it available all the time? What's $10k * 137,000,000? [1] At those levels, the failed Uber experiment can be a whimsical write-off. Or perhaps it's a strategic venture to handle some of these pesky regulations we're always talking about Uber fighting.
I don't want to own a car. I just want to have the freedom to be mobile at a moments notice.
[1]: http://cars.lovetoknow.com/Car_Ownership_Statistics