Let's replace "believe in machine" in 2014 with "believe in flying to the Moon" in 1961. Imagine how ridiculous flying to the Moon was to some individuals then. Imagine how they could write quite similar articles. Now, after men landed and returned and dust settled decades ago - how we're looking to those possible articles?
May be they had some merit - may be, because it's hard to forecast what's going to happen. Who knows - may be we have a chance to cure cancer in three years, if we only look to the right place today, but we won't and the progress will takes much longer. Who knows - it may very well be possible that Kurzwell predictions won't come true. But that's besides the point. We don't know - and the article is written with suggestion that we actually won't, so the author does know that it won't happen. Just because the matter is so strange to him.
That's an unreliable ground to build forecasts on.
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Let's replace "believe in machine" in 2014 with "believe in flying to the Moon" in 1961. Imagine how ridiculous flying to the Moon was to some individuals then. Imagine how they could write quite similar articles. Now, after men landed and returned and dust settled decades ago - how we're looking to those possible articles?
May be they had some merit - may be, because it's hard to forecast what's going to happen. Who knows - may be we have a chance to cure cancer in three years, if we only look to the right place today, but we won't and the progress will takes much longer. Who knows - it may very well be possible that Kurzwell predictions won't come true. But that's besides the point. We don't know - and the article is written with suggestion that we actually won't, so the author does know that it won't happen. Just because the matter is so strange to him.
That's an unreliable ground to build forecasts on.