I think you're basically right, but I wonder about the details.
For example, my own driving is not money-limited-- gas could double in price and I would drive just as much, because I drive so little already. Whether I pay $200/year or $400/year for gas doesn't make a difference.
I suspect that the vast majority of miles driven are driven by people who would find cheaper alternatives, like buses or bicycles or email, if prices went up even 20%. But that's just speculation. Empirically, when gas costs doubled briefly last year, it seemed to me that traffic was still almost as bad.
So, I mostly agree with you, but I'm not 100% convinced.
Yes, but (I infer that) you're a well-paid, environmentally-conscious professional living in the center of a dense (and expensive) city. For everybody like you, there's a pizza delivery driver on the other side of the bell curve who covers 200 miles a night. If delivery-miles get cheaper, we have no reason to think the pizzeria wouldn't spend the savings on more drivers, so as to reduce the amount of time customers have to wait.
when gas costs doubled briefly last year...
We wouldn't expect to see much change so soon after the price shock. Filling up at $4.50/gallon is no fun, but in the short term it's something people are willing to put up with rather than buying a new Prius or moving into a new home with a shorter commute.
Comments
I think you're basically right, but I wonder about the details.
For example, my own driving is not money-limited-- gas could double in price and I would drive just as much, because I drive so little already. Whether I pay $200/year or $400/year for gas doesn't make a difference.
I suspect that the vast majority of miles driven are driven by people who would find cheaper alternatives, like buses or bicycles or email, if prices went up even 20%. But that's just speculation. Empirically, when gas costs doubled briefly last year, it seemed to me that traffic was still almost as bad.
So, I mostly agree with you, but I'm not 100% convinced.
my own driving is not money-limited...
Yes, but (I infer that) you're a well-paid, environmentally-conscious professional living in the center of a dense (and expensive) city. For everybody like you, there's a pizza delivery driver on the other side of the bell curve who covers 200 miles a night. If delivery-miles get cheaper, we have no reason to think the pizzeria wouldn't spend the savings on more drivers, so as to reduce the amount of time customers have to wait.
when gas costs doubled briefly last year...
We wouldn't expect to see much change so soon after the price shock. Filling up at $4.50/gallon is no fun, but in the short term it's something people are willing to put up with rather than buying a new Prius or moving into a new home with a shorter commute.