The bet is that Russia's economy is so much smaller now in relation to the other economic giants, as compared to the cold war days, that the ability for the US and EU to hurt Russia is greater than Russia's ability to cause damage back the other way, by a substantial factor.
The US economy by itself is eight times the size of Russia's. Europe has four economies as big as Russia's. Canada and Australia now have economies nearly on par with Russia's.
Russia only has one real trick up its sleeve, and that's natural gas. They can act on that, but it'll cripple their own domestic economy and send the oligarchs into a fit, which risks Putin's power.
For emphasis:
US + UK + Germany + Italy + Spain + France + Canada + Australia = $32 trillion in GDP give or take. Russia = $2 trillion. It's obvious who will win a battle of sanctions. Not to mention the ruble can fairly easily be crushed by the dollar hegemony.
All the allies on the Western Front of WW2 counted to a fraction of the Russian forces on the Eastern Front. People like to forget it was Russia that won WW2.
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I don't think anybody forgot that at all.
The bet is that Russia's economy is so much smaller now in relation to the other economic giants, as compared to the cold war days, that the ability for the US and EU to hurt Russia is greater than Russia's ability to cause damage back the other way, by a substantial factor.
The US economy by itself is eight times the size of Russia's. Europe has four economies as big as Russia's. Canada and Australia now have economies nearly on par with Russia's.
Russia only has one real trick up its sleeve, and that's natural gas. They can act on that, but it'll cripple their own domestic economy and send the oligarchs into a fit, which risks Putin's power.
For emphasis:
US + UK + Germany + Italy + Spain + France + Canada + Australia = $32 trillion in GDP give or take. Russia = $2 trillion. It's obvious who will win a battle of sanctions. Not to mention the ruble can fairly easily be crushed by the dollar hegemony.
I'm not saying the west won't win.
I'm just saying don't forget the cost. And incidentally, I'm not entirely convinced that paper wealth trumps natural resources in today's world.
Also, I wouldn't count on Russia having only "one trick up it's sleeve".
All the allies on the Western Front of WW2 counted to a fraction of the Russian forces on the Eastern Front. People like to forget it was Russia that won WW2.
Everyone loses here. US, Russia, and especially Ukraine.