Do you have any documentation on the incognito vs. cookies claim? I'm skeptical that many airlines would do this when their "advertised" price is readily available on so many other sites.
ITA's Matrix is my go-to choice. I wonder if they sell search metrics to the airlines.
I don't have any documentation, but I've been flying A LOT for many years (last year flew 108 flights for a total over over 150,000 miles). What the parent comment above you is saying is true.
It is common knowledge among frequent flyers that you can get better prices sometimes if you're not signed in. For example, if you fly 100,000 miles a year with an airlines, they're pretty confident you're going to fly with them, so why not show you a slightly higher fare? The worst part: it works. I go to HipMunk sometimes and see a fare for $500 dollars less (on the same airline), but I still book through my preferred airlines, because the benefits are worth it for me: no hassle security, no hassle baggage (first on, first off), no hassle boarding, good chance of 1st class upgrade, etc.
The good news is that if you do find a lower fare on ITA (and pretty much only ITA), you can usually call the airlines and get that fare. Fares are bucketed into fixed "fare classes" so if there is availability in a cheap bucket, the airline MUST sell it to you.
The bad news for frequent flyers is that many benefits do not extend to these cheaper fare buckets. For example, if I want even a chance to be upgraded to business class for free on a transatlantic flight, I have to purchase one of the most expensive economy fare classes. Concrete example: I am flying to Israel in a couple months; for the cheap economy fare it was $1400, but for a chance at an upgrade it was $2,100. I took the $2,100 fare, because being in business to TLV is quite important to me.
Has anyone ever seen any hard evidence for the incognito/cookies price differences other than cursory anecdotal evidence? I've only ever seen "I fly a lot and everyone who flies a lot knows this is true" reasoning for this phenomenon. Has anyone ever seen/done an actual experimental study on whether or not this is a real thing?
I'm not necessarily doubting that this is a thing, I've just never seen hard evidence.
I fly a lot, and spends weeks and weeks watching prices (and not see them change). And I used to work for online travel agencies. No, this is not true. Every person who claims it is true says "I watched the prices, and waited, then when I bought the ticket it was more expensive." Completely ignoring the fact that ticket prices generally rise as you approach the time of the flight. I've seen no evidence that the person would have paid less if they used incognito mode. I've also never seen a different (well higher price) if I signed in.
Maybe you could pay some mechanical turks to do it and take screenshots for you? I've personally seen Marriott charge me more when I'm logged in, and took and posted screenshots at the time, so I really have no doubts myself. The only hard evidence you'll find are screenshots like that, but the only statistical valid numbers would be surveys people could just lie in, so I don't think you have much choice beyond a paid survey at this point for your requirements.
Do you agree that 2 weeks out is the best time to book? From what I've seen, that's still cutting it way close, and the ideal time to book is more like 4-6 weeks out
If you visit the airline's site multiple times, you are not penalized (price-wise) for that.
However, given well-known yield management techniques, you are likely to see the price rise over time.
Variations such as the modulation on the time of day make generalizable comparisons harder.
If you browse the site in a fresh browser, you may see a different offer but the resulting price is substantially similar. This kind of makes sense as a marketing ploy — try harder to attract the comparison shopper, but sell them the same ticket in the end.
I don't know what the rationale is, but I booked a flight last month where the fare listed in ITA Matrix wasn't bookable on the airlines website (TAP Portugal), but was available on Expedia.
Short answer: they use cookies to track your searching behavior, and raise fares if you keep looking with the intent of getting you to panic buy. Correlates of high income (e.g. using a Mac or an iPhone) also hurt you.
Comments
Do you have any documentation on the incognito vs. cookies claim? I'm skeptical that many airlines would do this when their "advertised" price is readily available on so many other sites.
ITA's Matrix is my go-to choice. I wonder if they sell search metrics to the airlines.
I don't have any documentation, but I've been flying A LOT for many years (last year flew 108 flights for a total over over 150,000 miles). What the parent comment above you is saying is true.
It is common knowledge among frequent flyers that you can get better prices sometimes if you're not signed in. For example, if you fly 100,000 miles a year with an airlines, they're pretty confident you're going to fly with them, so why not show you a slightly higher fare? The worst part: it works. I go to HipMunk sometimes and see a fare for $500 dollars less (on the same airline), but I still book through my preferred airlines, because the benefits are worth it for me: no hassle security, no hassle baggage (first on, first off), no hassle boarding, good chance of 1st class upgrade, etc.
The good news is that if you do find a lower fare on ITA (and pretty much only ITA), you can usually call the airlines and get that fare. Fares are bucketed into fixed "fare classes" so if there is availability in a cheap bucket, the airline MUST sell it to you.
The bad news for frequent flyers is that many benefits do not extend to these cheaper fare buckets. For example, if I want even a chance to be upgraded to business class for free on a transatlantic flight, I have to purchase one of the most expensive economy fare classes. Concrete example: I am flying to Israel in a couple months; for the cheap economy fare it was $1400, but for a chance at an upgrade it was $2,100. I took the $2,100 fare, because being in business to TLV is quite important to me.
Its unfortunate, but its how it is.
Has anyone ever seen any hard evidence for the incognito/cookies price differences other than cursory anecdotal evidence? I've only ever seen "I fly a lot and everyone who flies a lot knows this is true" reasoning for this phenomenon. Has anyone ever seen/done an actual experimental study on whether or not this is a real thing?
I'm not necessarily doubting that this is a thing, I've just never seen hard evidence.
I fly a lot, and spends weeks and weeks watching prices (and not see them change). And I used to work for online travel agencies. No, this is not true. Every person who claims it is true says "I watched the prices, and waited, then when I bought the ticket it was more expensive." Completely ignoring the fact that ticket prices generally rise as you approach the time of the flight. I've seen no evidence that the person would have paid less if they used incognito mode. I've also never seen a different (well higher price) if I signed in.
Maybe you could pay some mechanical turks to do it and take screenshots for you? I've personally seen Marriott charge me more when I'm logged in, and took and posted screenshots at the time, so I really have no doubts myself. The only hard evidence you'll find are screenshots like that, but the only statistical valid numbers would be surveys people could just lie in, so I don't think you have much choice beyond a paid survey at this point for your requirements.
Do you agree that 2 weeks out is the best time to book? From what I've seen, that's still cutting it way close, and the ideal time to book is more like 4-6 weeks out
According to Kayak itself, the best time for domestic is 3-7 weeks out, and for international destinations it varies by continent: http://www.kayak.com/news/KAYAK-Travel-Guide-2014.bd.html
Perhaps.
http://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/9597/do-ryanair-...
The last set of tickets I bought had totally different prices for cookie vs incognito mode -- ~20% higher when saddled with a cookie.
I don't know what the rationale is, but I booked a flight last month where the fare listed in ITA Matrix wasn't bookable on the airlines website (TAP Portugal), but was available on Expedia.
Some links:
* http://travel.stackexchange.com/questions/16581/does-browsin...
* http://www.quora.com/Airfares/Does-searching-for-air-tickets...
* http://studenttravel.about.com/od/planes/a/The-Students-Guid...
Short answer: they use cookies to track your searching behavior, and raise fares if you keep looking with the intent of getting you to panic buy. Correlates of high income (e.g. using a Mac or an iPhone) also hurt you.