"Chi has identified one model that Wikipedia's growth pattern matches. 'In my experience, the only thing we've seen these growth patterns [in] before is in population growth studies--where there's some sort of resource constraint that results in this model.' The site, he suggests, is becoming like a community where resources have started to run out."
That's an interesting observation. The other time I have seen a growth curve like that is observing the growth of homeschooling in the United States from the 1980s through the 1990s
to the present. The scarce resource is parents who feel they have enough time to homeschool their children. That resource is not completely exhausted, but the growth of homeschooling in the United States follows the resource-constrained S-shaped curve model much better than an exponential, bigger-is-always-better model. It appears that the resource constraint now on Wikipedia is new editors willing to work with the existing editors. That resource isn't exhausted yet either, but it is scarce and limited, and thus Wikipedia's growth rate has slowed.
Comments
"Chi has identified one model that Wikipedia's growth pattern matches. 'In my experience, the only thing we've seen these growth patterns [in] before is in population growth studies--where there's some sort of resource constraint that results in this model.' The site, he suggests, is becoming like a community where resources have started to run out."
That's an interesting observation. The other time I have seen a growth curve like that is observing the growth of homeschooling in the United States from the 1980s through the 1990s
http://learninfreedom.org/homeschool_growth.html
to the present. The scarce resource is parents who feel they have enough time to homeschool their children. That resource is not completely exhausted, but the growth of homeschooling in the United States follows the resource-constrained S-shaped curve model much better than an exponential, bigger-is-always-better model. It appears that the resource constraint now on Wikipedia is new editors willing to work with the existing editors. That resource isn't exhausted yet either, but it is scarce and limited, and thus Wikipedia's growth rate has slowed.