By principle, I noticed something that looks like selection bias: she seems to only criticize the decisions on wrong moves without comparing them to when he did well. After all, maybe he just spent one second on the good moves because his instinct is very good?
I know in practice he should have used the available time, but I wanted to underline the one flaw of the article; the rest is pretty good.
What? The post specifically mentioned her noting when he did well:
Then the storm passed. Spiegel resumed moving pieces and examining the game. She pointed out his good moves. “Very clever,” she said when he took the knight. As the game progressed, Spiegel praised his good ideas and asked him to come up with alternatives to others. “You were playing in some ways an excellent game,” she told him, “and then once in a while you moved superfast and you did something really stupid. If you can stop doing that, you’re going to do very, very well.”
Failures are hardly ever analyzed. Successes are usually mis-analyzed using some false narrative with bad decisions and elements of luck entirely discounted.
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By principle, I noticed something that looks like selection bias: she seems to only criticize the decisions on wrong moves without comparing them to when he did well. After all, maybe he just spent one second on the good moves because his instinct is very good?
I know in practice he should have used the available time, but I wanted to underline the one flaw of the article; the rest is pretty good.
What? The post specifically mentioned her noting when he did well:
Then the storm passed. Spiegel resumed moving pieces and examining the game. She pointed out his good moves. “Very clever,” she said when he took the knight. As the game progressed, Spiegel praised his good ideas and asked him to come up with alternatives to others. “You were playing in some ways an excellent game,” she told him, “and then once in a while you moved superfast and you did something really stupid. If you can stop doing that, you’re going to do very, very well.”
Same with startups: we don't analyze successes as much as we scrutinize failures.
Failures are hardly ever analyzed. Successes are usually mis-analyzed using some false narrative with bad decisions and elements of luck entirely discounted.
That is not at all what I've seen from various founders in my network. Those who fail spend far more time analyzing what happened.
I was talking about outsiders.