Comment on Entrepreneurs Don't Have an Optimism BiasparentComments−cookingrobot12yNot so. The payoff of a successful startup is so high that it's often a good bet even with a high chance of failure.−codex12yExpected value only enters the picture if you can play many, many times. It's more realistic to look at the median outcome, yet every entrepreneur is transfixed by the big exits. If that's not optimism I don't know what is.
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Not so. The payoff of a successful startup is so high that it's often a good bet even with a high chance of failure.
Expected value only enters the picture if you can play many, many times. It's more realistic to look at the median outcome, yet every entrepreneur is transfixed by the big exits. If that's not optimism I don't know what is.