No, odds of a perfect bracket are closer to 1 in 2^47 than 1 in 2^63. The reason is that a coinflip makes too many stupid picks, such as a #16 seed beating a #1 seed. If you use the Sagarin ratings to generate a simulated bracket, the odds of a perfect bracket are approximately 1 in 2^47.
If you're trying to win the perfect bracket challenge, you can do much better than flipping a coin for each pick. Instead, flip a biased coin, with the higher seed favored based on Sagarin rating.
[Picking mostly favorites is also a stupid strategy if you're trying to win, because, if you do win, you're likely to be tied with others and split the prize.]
Comments
No, odds of a perfect bracket are closer to 1 in 2^47 than 1 in 2^63. The reason is that a coinflip makes too many stupid picks, such as a #16 seed beating a #1 seed. If you use the Sagarin ratings to generate a simulated bracket, the odds of a perfect bracket are approximately 1 in 2^47.
If you're trying to win the perfect bracket challenge, you can do much better than flipping a coin for each pick. Instead, flip a biased coin, with the higher seed favored based on Sagarin rating.
http://www.realfreemarket.org/blog/2013/03/16/what-are-the-o...
[Picking mostly favorites is also a stupid strategy if you're trying to win, because, if you do win, you're likely to be tied with others and split the prize.]