My python is really rusty, but if you convert this sudocode to python, you will see that the answer is 50/50. I'll write this up in Javascript when I have time. If you do this in Python, please post.
girl = 0
boy = 0
do 10000 times {
child1Sex = randomSex;
child1Day = randomDay;
child2Sex = randomSex;
child2Day = randomDay;
if ( (child1Sex == "B" AND child1Day == "Tu") OR (child2Sex == "B" AND child2Day == "Tu") ) {
if (child1Sex == child2Sex){
boy++
} else {
girl++
}
}
}
print "Ratio of boys and girls is " + boy " : " + girl;
Wow, works good. I should learn python :) But yeah, you were absolutely right! It was hard for me to figure out because I was trying to find a mathematical reason for this, and I was wrong. I finally figured it out mathematically. The way you posit the problem the probability that the asked parents have another boy is (1/2)-(1/7/2).
This is really counter intuitive, the open vs. closed probability set through me off. Hey, thanks for putting up with my stubbornness!
Comments
My python is really rusty, but if you convert this sudocode to python, you will see that the answer is 50/50. I'll write this up in Javascript when I have time. If you do this in Python, please post.
I whipped together something here, before I saw that someone else did it too: http://ideone.com/jyPOhs
It is the most counter-intuitive statistic problem I know (worse than Monty Hall), it trips everyone up at first.
No problem about the stubborness ;)
Here's my attempt in python: http://pastebin.com/tSDK1uRv
the range(0,10000) may not be correct, it might need to be 1,10000
Wow, works good. I should learn python :) But yeah, you were absolutely right! It was hard for me to figure out because I was trying to find a mathematical reason for this, and I was wrong. I finally figured it out mathematically. The way you posit the problem the probability that the asked parents have another boy is (1/2)-(1/7/2).
This is really counter intuitive, the open vs. closed probability set through me off. Hey, thanks for putting up with my stubbornness!