A few months ago, before the current wave of hype started, I got the historical price data on bitcoin and ran Eureqa on it, which is a program that tries to find the simplest possible equation that fits the data. Not for any practical reason, I was just testing the software. I extrapolated the result forward in time a few months ahead to see what it predicted, and it showed it increasing in price exponentially.
I was disappointed because I thought that was ridiculous and that I must have overfit somehow.
I don't think it was overfit, though just historical data isn't anywhere near enough information to make accurate predictions about things. I just find it funny that it wasn't as far off as I thought it would be.
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A few months ago, before the current wave of hype started, I got the historical price data on bitcoin and ran Eureqa on it, which is a program that tries to find the simplest possible equation that fits the data. Not for any practical reason, I was just testing the software. I extrapolated the result forward in time a few months ahead to see what it predicted, and it showed it increasing in price exponentially.
I was disappointed because I thought that was ridiculous and that I must have overfit somehow.
You didn't overfit. You fell in to the trap of assuming that past performance dictates future performance. It does not.
You did overfit.
I don't think it was overfit, though just historical data isn't anywhere near enough information to make accurate predictions about things. I just find it funny that it wasn't as far off as I thought it would be.