In certain fields, that's not implausible. Many results are along the lines of "compound X is effective against disease Y", where the negation, "compound X is not effective against disease Y", is a reasonable baseline assumption, because most compounds are not effective against most diseases.
Results where the prior odds could plausibly be considered 50/50 are another story. Scientific research that doesn't take the form "rule out the null hypothesis with p values" is also a different matter (lots of CS and physics, among other fields, has a more complex mingling of theory and epistemology than experiment/nullhypothesis/pvalue/repeat).
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In certain fields, that's not implausible. Many results are along the lines of "compound X is effective against disease Y", where the negation, "compound X is not effective against disease Y", is a reasonable baseline assumption, because most compounds are not effective against most diseases.
Results where the prior odds could plausibly be considered 50/50 are another story. Scientific research that doesn't take the form "rule out the null hypothesis with p values" is also a different matter (lots of CS and physics, among other fields, has a more complex mingling of theory and epistemology than experiment/nullhypothesis/pvalue/repeat).
That's a good point. I didn't consider the fact that possibly many discoveries have a very low prior expectation of truthood.