>> We strongly believe that predicting should be a social activity.
Can you explain more about what the purpose is? I can see why predicting certain things can be important, but after reviewing the "tour" and the issues being discussed, it seems like a game of chance to me. What are the benefits to being involved in a community like this?
For the community it's a game (with either real or fake money), but the predictions tend to be surprisingly accurate, given a few conditions are met.
It can also be used by large organisations in the decision making process (which is how I presume this could be funded), but I haven't heard of this actually happening in the wild.
Prediction markets* aren't games of chance; they're an economist's tool, an alternative to polls, or an embarassment to prognosticators. Not that they're perfect+.
Even less perfect when I can't find a list or search-box to select among the "symbols" to sell and purchase. Also, the "social" part is difficult when I can't find a place to "discuss" on each contract.
In my mind, there are two main purposes: 1. You can make your prediction public and gain social status for being the most clairvoyant or the best trader, and 2. When the markets stabilize, the prices will give an indication of the likelihood of certain events. The game of making predictions involves chance and skill, and I think there is enough skill to make this game more interesting than Yahtzee.
Comments
>> We strongly believe that predicting should be a social activity.
Can you explain more about what the purpose is? I can see why predicting certain things can be important, but after reviewing the "tour" and the issues being discussed, it seems like a game of chance to me. What are the benefits to being involved in a community like this?
For the community it's a game (with either real or fake money), but the predictions tend to be surprisingly accurate, given a few conditions are met.
It can also be used by large organisations in the decision making process (which is how I presume this could be funded), but I haven't heard of this actually happening in the wild.
More info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
edit, better link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
Prediction markets* aren't games of chance; they're an economist's tool, an alternative to polls, or an embarassment to prognosticators. Not that they're perfect+.
Even less perfect when I can't find a list or search-box to select among the "symbols" to sell and purchase. Also, the "social" part is difficult when I can't find a place to "discuss" on each contract.
*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_Market +http://www.slate.com/id/2189135/pagenum/all
All of the symbols are listed on the sidebar. Good idea about contract discussions. That's in the pipeline.
In my mind, there are two main purposes: 1. You can make your prediction public and gain social status for being the most clairvoyant or the best trader, and 2. When the markets stabilize, the prices will give an indication of the likelihood of certain events. The game of making predictions involves chance and skill, and I think there is enough skill to make this game more interesting than Yahtzee.
A related question:
Is the social aspect of this market the difference between it and competitors like http://ppx.popsci.com/ ?
Yes.