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AMC Networks (AMC's parent company) made $1.35 billion in 2012, about 58% of which came from cable and other distribution fees, of which 10% came from Comcast and DirecTV combined. [Source: AMC Networks, Inc. Form 10-K, Year End 2012]

Let's be super conservative and take just that 10% into consideration. That's still $78.3 million a year from the Comcast and DirecTV accounts. If we take all cable fees into consideration, the number climbs to somewhere closer to $400-$600 million a year.

That's a pretty big chunk of change to sacrifice, especially very suddenly. If the CEO of AMC Networks "cut cable" out of his model in the course of a year, the company's stock price would collapse, and he'd be out of a job in record time.

No question that there's a lot of money to be made from VOD licensing and a la carte purchases. But we need to be realistic about how companies like AMC are going to get there. It's going to be a slow transition, not a sudden one.

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