That depends on several things about the replication attempt, such as sample size and methodology, summarized into the concept of statistical power: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_power

It's not just power, you also need prior odds if you want to make an unconditional estimate. This is pretty much the core of Ioannides's famous paper http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal... - even after taking power into account, the replication rate could be anywhere from 0 to say 80% depending on the prior odds.