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Comment on Show HN: I made a site that lets you bet against Bitcoin Hash Rate Volatility

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Is anyone else thinking with cloud computing and the right amount of seed money, you could bump the numbers before the round ends, raking in your winnings + whatever the cloud mines in the hour you run it for?

You'd need ASIC Miners, but even then, you'd have a minuscule impact.

More importantly, if you have that much Gigahashing power, it's not worth manipulating this. You're better off sticking to mining Bitcoins.

Not necessarily. If the market is large enough and you control a significant portion of the hashing power (e.g. pool operators), you could bet below and then halt all hashing for the checking period. You would potentially lose a block, but would offset that by gaining more than 25 BTC in bets.

It's a daily bet on a weighted 12 hour average. So you'd probably need to lose much more than a block.

Given the size of the market and the amount of hashing power required to do that you'd almost certainly lose more money from not mining during that time than you would make on the trade.

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