It's unfortunate, because that article and the base rate article have some contradictory conclusions--but, the linked article shows its math.
What's really troubling me here though is that you seem unwilling even as a thought experiment to entertain the notion that this sort of behavior could be purposeful by the government. In many, many prior discussions you've held this view, you've advocated for stripping rights, you've advocated for screwing over people scraping public unauthenticated APIs, you've advocated a great many things against the general notion of the public good, of privacy, and of exploration.
Perhaps come down here and--in the name of intellectual honesty--try and understand what exactly has so many of these people bothered. As it is, due to your choice of message and presentation, you often come off as at best aloof and at worst willfully ignorant.
I like how this comment goes from acknowledging that the author didn't know about an extremely basic and fundamental concept of statistics to a whole paragraph of (frankly weird) assertions about my character and beliefs. It's almost gymnastic.
I think one place to start moving forward is to acknowledge that you really have no idea what I do or don't believe.
Comments
So, your first possibility is incorrect.
The second is worth investigating, and in the interest of teaching others I'll provide a helpful link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy
It's unfortunate, because that article and the base rate article have some contradictory conclusions--but, the linked article shows its math.
What's really troubling me here though is that you seem unwilling even as a thought experiment to entertain the notion that this sort of behavior could be purposeful by the government. In many, many prior discussions you've held this view, you've advocated for stripping rights, you've advocated for screwing over people scraping public unauthenticated APIs, you've advocated a great many things against the general notion of the public good, of privacy, and of exploration.
Perhaps come down here and--in the name of intellectual honesty--try and understand what exactly has so many of these people bothered. As it is, due to your choice of message and presentation, you often come off as at best aloof and at worst willfully ignorant.
I like how this comment goes from acknowledging that the author didn't know about an extremely basic and fundamental concept of statistics to a whole paragraph of (frankly weird) assertions about my character and beliefs. It's almost gymnastic.
I think one place to start moving forward is to acknowledge that you really have no idea what I do or don't believe.