This doesn't take into account the typical shape of crowdfunding curves, which are almost always steep at the beginning and even steeper at the end, and relatively flat in the middle. This is very well documented by a bajillion kickstarter campaigns. Here's a typical curve: http://www.sneakattackpress.com/images/KickBrokenProgress.jp...
Basically, these things always spike at the end (if they have any traction), and I'd be willing to bet all the money in my bank account that this will spike at the end. The only real question is whether that spike will get them to their goal.
I would assume the steep end of the typical Kickstarter curve occurs because projects start to approach their funding goals, drawing in a lot of new backers because they believe the project will actually get off the ground. If the Ubuntu Edge fundraising already stalls $20M before they reach their funding goal, I yet have to see if they are able to create a spike in their backing just before their deadline...
I think the problem is that the Edge campaign flattened out so early. The link you provided seems to go flat at about the 50% funding mark. The Edge (appears to have) stalled at 20%. Unless it's just a transient bump, that seems far too soon.
I have no idea if it'll hit the mark, I just think the analysis doesn't hold water because it doesn't acknowledge the real dynamics of these types of campaigns.
This campaign could go so many different ways. The safest bet is that it won't succeed, simply because it is so groundbreakingly large. However, how many times have crowdfunding campaigns surprised you with their level of success? For me, the answer to that question is "tons of times". So I'm not taking a guess on whether it'll succeed. I'm just saying, "Good luck!".
That flat line is a lot closer to 100% than they are though, I wonder whether flatlining around 20% and then funding would be precedented, I suspect not.
Comments
This doesn't take into account the typical shape of crowdfunding curves, which are almost always steep at the beginning and even steeper at the end, and relatively flat in the middle. This is very well documented by a bajillion kickstarter campaigns. Here's a typical curve: http://www.sneakattackpress.com/images/KickBrokenProgress.jp...
In response to the couple of people who commented, "But that graph was close to 100% before it spiked" look at this one: http://flippfly.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/FinalFundingC...
Basically, these things always spike at the end (if they have any traction), and I'd be willing to bet all the money in my bank account that this will spike at the end. The only real question is whether that spike will get them to their goal.
I would assume the steep end of the typical Kickstarter curve occurs because projects start to approach their funding goals, drawing in a lot of new backers because they believe the project will actually get off the ground. If the Ubuntu Edge fundraising already stalls $20M before they reach their funding goal, I yet have to see if they are able to create a spike in their backing just before their deadline...
I think the problem is that the Edge campaign flattened out so early. The link you provided seems to go flat at about the 50% funding mark. The Edge (appears to have) stalled at 20%. Unless it's just a transient bump, that seems far too soon.
I have no idea if it'll hit the mark, I just think the analysis doesn't hold water because it doesn't acknowledge the real dynamics of these types of campaigns.
This campaign could go so many different ways. The safest bet is that it won't succeed, simply because it is so groundbreakingly large. However, how many times have crowdfunding campaigns surprised you with their level of success? For me, the answer to that question is "tons of times". So I'm not taking a guess on whether it'll succeed. I'm just saying, "Good luck!".
I'll add the Parallela project, another project with similar end spike but in the range of 700000$.
http://canhekick.it/project/5064d31d8f647c24e5ad60d0
Differences with Ubuntu Edge :
- unknown group and brand
- non mainstream~ product
- small marketing campaign at the beginning
- few articles featured on large website near the end
That flat line is a lot closer to 100% than they are though, I wonder whether flatlining around 20% and then funding would be precedented, I suspect not.