Do you think that with new marketing, they can reach lots of potential backers who haven't already been reached? Bear in mind that the target market is highly geeky and highly connected. And so are likely to have seen the articles on HN and reddit already.
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The primary factor missing from this analysis is marketing.
When they launched, naturally contributions went through the roof. When they did the Reddit AMA, there was another noticeable spike.
I have no idea what their marketing plans are but there is no way they have exhausted their options within the first week.
Do you think that with new marketing, they can reach lots of potential backers who haven't already been reached? Bear in mind that the target market is highly geeky and highly connected. And so are likely to have seen the articles on HN and reddit already.