That is the problem with exponentials, they are really s-curves in real life.
If you are upset with the state of your desktop computer, you need look no further than the accountant next door. You see "we" (and I use that term to encompass people who are interested in computers and changing the computer to create new things) are a small market, and "they" (the set of people who use computers as a tool to get their job done) are a huge market. And they don't care about 4K screens. In fact 1920 x 1200 was more than they needed and so they would buy the cheaper "TV" glass (aka 1920 x 1080) and save a few bucks (or a lot of bucks) and be just as happy. Meanwhile I pay $400 - $450 for a display because I want ever pixel I can get.
It took a guy who had a penchant for making "insane" requests to demand that his company put a high pixel density display on a phone. While at the time it was "crazy talk" the reality is that it really is nicer looking at a high ppi screen than it is a low ppi screen. And in markets where that translates into sales, they have come to dominate the "high margin" bracket.
We don't have a "high margin" bracket. We don't have anyone making "workstations" any more (not in the sense that Sun used to make them), we hardly have anyone making general purpose non-server type computers any more (all you need is a thing to host a browser to display what the real computer wants to show you). The Pixel is perhaps the most interesting example of this at the moment.
Once the network becomes sufficiently fast and reliable, the low marginal cost of delivering a new program on a server trumps the high cost of upgrading the thing you sit at. And the network has gotten a whole lot better with gigabit links being the 'norm' these days.
I've watched computers go from things that filled rooms and talked to dumb terminals over a serial line, to amazing local computation engines with multiple displays, back to computers that fill rooms and talk to a browser over the network. Why do you even want a desktop "computer" any more, don't you want your computer to be able to talk to all of your peripherals, keyboard, mouse, display, phone, and television ? That puts your computer in a box and attached to a fast network that your peripherals are attached to. All you need where you sit is enough juice to light up the peripherals. And we've pretty solidly reached that point.
Why do you even want a desktop "computer" any more, don't you want your computer to be able to talk to all of your peripherals, keyboard, mouse, display, phone, and television ? That puts your computer in a box and attached to a fast network that your peripherals are attached to. All you need where you sit is enough juice to light up the peripherals. And we've pretty solidly reached that point.
YES! You have hit a nerve. I very much want my singular computer to be a box--somewhere, anywhere--permanently attached to a high-speed network, and to connect to views of applications running on that computer from every single device I own [1].
However, for the time being, my desktop computer is the closest thing I have to a central/master/singular computer. It is the workhorse in my device arsenal. The fact that I want every device I own to be a terminal to view applications running on my singular compute device is a source of continuous frustration. But it is what it is. In today's world, each device wants to be its own entity, much to my distaste.
But yes, if I had my way, even my desktop work environment would simply be a very large, high-definition display with some input devices--a terminal viewing applications running on my compute device. Of course I don't actually need the compute device to be above, below, or beside my desk. It could be in my garage or at a data center.
All of this is tangential to the fact that I want my workspace, my desk, to feature a very large, very clear, immersive display. In the short-term, if manufacturers are feeling the pinch of dipping sales, they must make desktops a focal point. I'd argue that the model I describe in [1] would also work to their advantage; I feel the first vendor to pull off that model--to unify the compute experience for consumers across all of their devices, yielding singular applications with multiple views, continuous/seamless state, no synchronization, self-control, federated backup--will enjoy quite the windfall.
Comments
That is the problem with exponentials, they are really s-curves in real life.
If you are upset with the state of your desktop computer, you need look no further than the accountant next door. You see "we" (and I use that term to encompass people who are interested in computers and changing the computer to create new things) are a small market, and "they" (the set of people who use computers as a tool to get their job done) are a huge market. And they don't care about 4K screens. In fact 1920 x 1200 was more than they needed and so they would buy the cheaper "TV" glass (aka 1920 x 1080) and save a few bucks (or a lot of bucks) and be just as happy. Meanwhile I pay $400 - $450 for a display because I want ever pixel I can get.
It took a guy who had a penchant for making "insane" requests to demand that his company put a high pixel density display on a phone. While at the time it was "crazy talk" the reality is that it really is nicer looking at a high ppi screen than it is a low ppi screen. And in markets where that translates into sales, they have come to dominate the "high margin" bracket.
We don't have a "high margin" bracket. We don't have anyone making "workstations" any more (not in the sense that Sun used to make them), we hardly have anyone making general purpose non-server type computers any more (all you need is a thing to host a browser to display what the real computer wants to show you). The Pixel is perhaps the most interesting example of this at the moment.
Once the network becomes sufficiently fast and reliable, the low marginal cost of delivering a new program on a server trumps the high cost of upgrading the thing you sit at. And the network has gotten a whole lot better with gigabit links being the 'norm' these days.
I've watched computers go from things that filled rooms and talked to dumb terminals over a serial line, to amazing local computation engines with multiple displays, back to computers that fill rooms and talk to a browser over the network. Why do you even want a desktop "computer" any more, don't you want your computer to be able to talk to all of your peripherals, keyboard, mouse, display, phone, and television ? That puts your computer in a box and attached to a fast network that your peripherals are attached to. All you need where you sit is enough juice to light up the peripherals. And we've pretty solidly reached that point.
YES! You have hit a nerve. I very much want my singular computer to be a box--somewhere, anywhere--permanently attached to a high-speed network, and to connect to views of applications running on that computer from every single device I own [1].
However, for the time being, my desktop computer is the closest thing I have to a central/master/singular computer. It is the workhorse in my device arsenal. The fact that I want every device I own to be a terminal to view applications running on my singular compute device is a source of continuous frustration. But it is what it is. In today's world, each device wants to be its own entity, much to my distaste.
But yes, if I had my way, even my desktop work environment would simply be a very large, high-definition display with some input devices--a terminal viewing applications running on my compute device. Of course I don't actually need the compute device to be above, below, or beside my desk. It could be in my garage or at a data center.
All of this is tangential to the fact that I want my workspace, my desk, to feature a very large, very clear, immersive display. In the short-term, if manufacturers are feeling the pinch of dipping sales, they must make desktops a focal point. I'd argue that the model I describe in [1] would also work to their advantage; I feel the first vendor to pull off that model--to unify the compute experience for consumers across all of their devices, yielding singular applications with multiple views, continuous/seamless state, no synchronization, self-control, federated backup--will enjoy quite the windfall.
[1] http://tiamat.tsotech.com/pao