An old argument for going to Mars is that spreading beyond Earth is necessary for survival in the very long term. It makes sense, but it always seems like there are so many other causes, more urgent, to spend our resources on. Musk's answer to that:
"The lessons of history would suggest that civilisations move in cycles. You can track that back quite far – the Babylonians, the Sumerians, followed by the Egyptians, the Romans, China. We're obviously in a very upward cycle right now and hopefully that remains the case. But it may not. There could be some series of events that cause that technology level to decline. Given that this is the first time in 4.5bn years where it's been possible for humanity to extend life beyond Earth, it seems like we'd be wise to act while the window was open and not count on the fact it will be open a long time."
I find it really hard to imagine our society going back to a dark age though...
You can't wait for perfection. This is the classic Maslow's hierarchy of needs fallacy. If you wait until the "more fundamental" layers are perfect you will wait too long or wait forever. And in many cases you will miss out on opportunities which feedback to "lower" layers from higher ones. It's important to spend an appropriate amount on different sorts of activities, but the appropriate amount is never to spend nothing on "higher level" stuff.
Consider science, for example. A lot of money was effectively invested into very esoteric sciences in the 18th through 19th centuries while the world was generally very poor, struggling to feed itself, struggling with disease, and so on. The seemingly logical, and compassionate, thing to do in those eras would have been to ignore esoteric pursuits and concentrate on dumping as much time, effort, and money into making everyone's lives better.
But that would have been disastrous. It would have meant that science would have lacked an understanding of genetics, of micro-biology, of chemistry, of electromagnetism, of physics, and so on. And that would have stunted the development of the industrial age (steam engines, and later electric motors), it would have stunted the development of new food crops, of fertilizers, of sanitation systems, of vaccines, of radio/television/networking, etc. Without which the entire world would be essentially as poor as it was in the 18th century, instead of with billions of people having access to stable food supplies, clean water, etc. and over a billion people living in wealth with a few billion more on the way to that level of wealth in the next few decades.
"I find it really hard to imagine our society going back to a dark age though..."
Why? It nearly happened on at least two occasions over the last fifty years through nuclear war.
Disease, volcanism, asteroid/comet impact, warfare, general econonmic collapse.... seems like quite a long list. Of course, none of these are terribly likely but I wouldn't rule them out entirely.
I find it really hard to imagine our society going back to a dark age though...
Do you though? World War I, World War II, etc.
I firmly believe there will be a WWIII in my lifetime. The US government is already a big boys club. You have money? You can join, we have money too. Look at how much the US is capitalizing off of student loans. Where do you think that money goes? It sure as hell ain't social services.
I really think that there are a few people running the country to completely militarize it at some point from a long time ago and their plans are finally coming to fruition.
All spending is going to the army. Police forces are more than equipped to fuck up nearly every city if they wanted to. At some point, the military/police will have so much force that the "people" no longer matter.
One day a switch will be flipped and it will become an entirely military country.
Once that happens, combined with Chinese forces, nuclear warfare, and global tension, I doubt anyone would survive a WWIII.
This is all just off handed bullshit-theorizing though.
You may enjoy the short novel "A Canticle for Lebowitz", which chronicles the cycles of humanity re-birthing through dark ages post-nuclear war, surpassing prior technology and...
http://www.amazon.com/Canticle-Leibowitz-Walter-Miller-Jr/dp...In the depths of the Utah desert, long after the Flame Deluge has scoured the earth clean, a monk of the Order of Saint Leibowitz has made a miraculous discovery: holy relics from the life of the great saint himself, including the blessed blueprint, the sacred shopping list, and the hallowed shrine of the Fallout Shelter.
In a terrifying age of darkness and decay, these artifacts could be the keys to mankind's salvation. But as the mystery at the core of this groundbreaking novel unfolds, it is the search itself—for meaning, for truth, for love—that offers hope for humanity's rebirth from the ashes.
It follows 3x periods: post nuclear, "rebuild" and discovery, and "surpass" technology.
Comments
An old argument for going to Mars is that spreading beyond Earth is necessary for survival in the very long term. It makes sense, but it always seems like there are so many other causes, more urgent, to spend our resources on. Musk's answer to that:
"The lessons of history would suggest that civilisations move in cycles. You can track that back quite far – the Babylonians, the Sumerians, followed by the Egyptians, the Romans, China. We're obviously in a very upward cycle right now and hopefully that remains the case. But it may not. There could be some series of events that cause that technology level to decline. Given that this is the first time in 4.5bn years where it's been possible for humanity to extend life beyond Earth, it seems like we'd be wise to act while the window was open and not count on the fact it will be open a long time."
I find it really hard to imagine our society going back to a dark age though...
You can't wait for perfection. This is the classic Maslow's hierarchy of needs fallacy. If you wait until the "more fundamental" layers are perfect you will wait too long or wait forever. And in many cases you will miss out on opportunities which feedback to "lower" layers from higher ones. It's important to spend an appropriate amount on different sorts of activities, but the appropriate amount is never to spend nothing on "higher level" stuff.
Consider science, for example. A lot of money was effectively invested into very esoteric sciences in the 18th through 19th centuries while the world was generally very poor, struggling to feed itself, struggling with disease, and so on. The seemingly logical, and compassionate, thing to do in those eras would have been to ignore esoteric pursuits and concentrate on dumping as much time, effort, and money into making everyone's lives better.
But that would have been disastrous. It would have meant that science would have lacked an understanding of genetics, of micro-biology, of chemistry, of electromagnetism, of physics, and so on. And that would have stunted the development of the industrial age (steam engines, and later electric motors), it would have stunted the development of new food crops, of fertilizers, of sanitation systems, of vaccines, of radio/television/networking, etc. Without which the entire world would be essentially as poor as it was in the 18th century, instead of with billions of people having access to stable food supplies, clean water, etc. and over a billion people living in wealth with a few billion more on the way to that level of wealth in the next few decades.
"I find it really hard to imagine our society going back to a dark age though..."
Why? It nearly happened on at least two occasions over the last fifty years through nuclear war.
Disease, volcanism, asteroid/comet impact, warfare, general econonmic collapse.... seems like quite a long list. Of course, none of these are terribly likely but I wouldn't rule them out entirely.
Does not take much. Most of the advanced knowledge is not easily available in written form: it's in the head of people working in the field.
Also, the production chain is really intricate. It doesn't take much to disrupt it. When was the last time you had to smelt copper?
Do you though? World War I, World War II, etc.
I firmly believe there will be a WWIII in my lifetime. The US government is already a big boys club. You have money? You can join, we have money too. Look at how much the US is capitalizing off of student loans. Where do you think that money goes? It sure as hell ain't social services.
I really think that there are a few people running the country to completely militarize it at some point from a long time ago and their plans are finally coming to fruition.
All spending is going to the army. Police forces are more than equipped to fuck up nearly every city if they wanted to. At some point, the military/police will have so much force that the "people" no longer matter.
One day a switch will be flipped and it will become an entirely military country.
Once that happens, combined with Chinese forces, nuclear warfare, and global tension, I doubt anyone would survive a WWIII.
This is all just off handed bullshit-theorizing though.
You may enjoy the short novel "A Canticle for Lebowitz", which chronicles the cycles of humanity re-birthing through dark ages post-nuclear war, surpassing prior technology and...
http://www.amazon.com/Canticle-Leibowitz-Walter-Miller-Jr/dp... In the depths of the Utah desert, long after the Flame Deluge has scoured the earth clean, a monk of the Order of Saint Leibowitz has made a miraculous discovery: holy relics from the life of the great saint himself, including the blessed blueprint, the sacred shopping list, and the hallowed shrine of the Fallout Shelter.
In a terrifying age of darkness and decay, these artifacts could be the keys to mankind's salvation. But as the mystery at the core of this groundbreaking novel unfolds, it is the search itself—for meaning, for truth, for love—that offers hope for humanity's rebirth from the ashes.
It follows 3x periods: post nuclear, "rebuild" and discovery, and "surpass" technology.